Republicans Bluffed out of the Game

"The idea that it is outside the rules to proceed within the rules is a very unique view on the rules... The point is this: If you've got 51 votes for your position, you win."
-- Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH),defending the use of the budget reconciliation process to pass legislation in 2005.

Depending on which side of America’s ideological chasm you stand, President Barack Obama’s Health Care Summit was either a success or a dismal failure. If your expectations were that genuine compromise would come from the meeting, you were bound to be disappointed. If you thought that the President and the Democrats would suddenly throw out a year of work and start building a bill based on RNC talking points, then surely this was a failure. From a standpoint of policy, the summit did not achieve anything. In changing votes, and winning over hearts and minds it failed.

But it was a political success for the President and opened strategic and tactical opportunities for him that would otherwise be blocked off. In addition, the Republicans lost one of their best arguments against the Obama bill.

Since the beginning of the debate the Republicans kept saying “We have ideas, but the Democrats simply won’t listen!” They have used this is a major argument to stir up opposition to Obama’s proposal. They kept saying that they would support any proposal that included their ideas that they claimed had widespread support of the American people.

But Obama knew his opponents and called their bluff.

In the days leading up to the summit, the White House released several substantive proposals. This was at once an invitation and a trap for the Republicans. It invited the Republicans to respond with ideas of their own. This invitation though, left the Republicans in a loose/loose position. If they made any proposals, the Democrats might actually include them in the legislation, which they in turn would then have to support. Supporting Obama on anything has become political suicide for a party whose base has been reduced to its extreme right wing.

If they didn’t respond with proposals of their own they would appear to be more interested in hurting Obama politically than taking care of business. That would keep their base happy, but would reinforce their obstructionist image with the majority of voters, who actually support Obama’s health care reforms.
They ducked the choice and argued about the shape of the meeting table instead.

On the day of the summit they missed one final opportunity to escape the trap. But they stepped right into it. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could have proposed something that would have been large enough and reasonable enough that the Democrats would have to include it. But, It could have been crafted so that it would have gotten token Republican support, but would have alienated more even more Democrats.

Any Republican support would leave Obama without his best argument to use the reconciliation process to pass his reforms. He would have had to press ahead outside the budget process. But gaining the token support of say Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) at the cost of Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Russ Feingold (D-Wisc) the Democrats still wouldn’t have enough votes to break a filibuster and pass the bill.

Unfortunately for the Republicans and fortunately for the 30 million people whom they don’t want to insure, McConnell is not that imaginative.

On the day of the summit Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va) lugged in a full copy of the bill and all the Republican talking points. The rest of the Republicans followed suit with their paint-by-numbers, RNC inspired comments. The Democrats spent their time correcting the Republican’s facts and reminding them that this was a policy discussion and not a political ad. By the time Rep John Boehner (R-Ohio) ran through his final round of Republican clichés it was obvious that they had come ill prepared, with no ideas to put on the table. The only one they had that the Democrats accepted was a proposal to use undercover “shoppers” to uncover Medicare fraud.

Because the Republicans had nothing substantive to say, the Democrats are free to pursue the reconciliation strategy to pass health care reform. It appears the Democrats will do just that. The Senate and House will pass the Senate version of the health care reform. Then they will follow that up with individual “fixes” to the new law that will have wide spread support and force the Republicans and conservative Democrats into either supporting these proposals or taking very public, unpopular votes.

Through lack of imagination, falling for their own rhetoric and overplaying their hand the Republicans took themselves out of the game. Obama is now free to move ahead as he chooses and there is nothing the Republicans can do but watch. The President bluffed them and won – and so did Health Care Reform.