Hey rich guy! Where's my job!

“Hey rich guy, where’s my job?”

"Today, no,"

Mayor Bloomberg’s answer, 04/23/11 on Fox News Sunday, when asked if he backed White House plans to raise $1 trillion from tax hikes on families earning more than $250,000.

The Republicans relentlessly oppose any rational discussion on taxes.

No news there.

The Republicans argue that taxes are a drag on the economy. Taxes, they say, will hinder the recovery by taking money away from “Wealth Creators.” This in turn means less money for the benevolent rich to invest in industries that create jobs.

Wealth’s race to the top over the past 30 years has been well documented. This realignment of wealth did not slow during the recession and continues today. Job growth remains slow. Wages for the “middle class” remain flat.

Yet Republican elected officials continue to stand tall for cutting taxes or keeping taxes low in the top bracket, while cutting big holes in the safety net. Republicans do this to keep the burden light on “wealth generators” so that they can create economic growth. An increase in taxes is “jobs killer.”

To listen to the Republicans you would think that states with lowest taxes would be booming and have the lowest unemployment. After all, those “wealth creators” with such low taxes, those “wealth creators” have plenty of “wealth” to spread around.

It isn’t working out that way.

For example, take Nevada and California.

A report by the Tax Foundation, issued in October of 2010, defines business climate in terms of business tax burden. They state “Taxes matter to business. Business taxes affect business decisions, job creation and retention.” They conclude, “a state with lower tax costs will be more attractive to business investment and more likely to experience economic growth.” (http://www.TaxFoundation.org/files/bp60.pdf). They rank Nevada as having the 4th best business climate in the country and California as 49th.

So according to Republican Tax doctrine, summed up so nicely by the Tax Foundation, Nevada should be doing better economically, than California, with lower unemployment and stronger growth.

In September of 2010, the US unemployment rate was 9.2% California’s unemployment rate was 12.1% and Nevada was at 15.1%. (Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics). Interestingly, New York, ranked 50th by the Tax Foundation, had an unemployment rate of 8.2% in September of 2010 - a full point below the national average and 6.8% less than Nevada. New York’s unemployment has been at or below the national average since 2006 and consistently below the national average since April of 2008.

Republican doctrine also says with such low taxes, Nevada would be recovering faster than either California or New York. But, according to information released in November of 2010 by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm), it isn’t. Between 2008 and 2009 the GDP of California fell 2.2%, New York’s fell 4.3% and Nevada’s fell 4.6%.

The Republicans would have the country believe that low taxes are the road to prosperity. But this simple comparison between tax rates, unemployment and GDP seems to indicate that there is not a strong co-relation between taxes and strong economic growth. Nevada, should have gotten into the recession later, and gotten out earlier with a shallower trough than either California or New York.

Clearly Nevada’s economic woes stem from the housing bust. But its economy was not diversified enough to withstand the collapse of the state’s construction industry. However, according to the Republicans, it should have. Before the recession industries should have been streaming out of California into Nevada to build a diversified economic base. That didn’t happen. Nevada’s economy is gaming, tourism and homebuilding. All three slowed or imploded.

According to Republican economic theory what happened in Nevada, shouldn’t have happened. But it did, and it is happening all over the world. In the 2008 Presidential campaign Republicans kept using Ireland as a model of a pro-growth corporate tax structure. Ireland has the lowest corporate tax rate in Europe.

It also has one of the weakest economies in Europe. Its bailout, along with Greece and Portugal pose a threat to the economic stability of the Eurozone.

“Wealth creators” are getting a big tax break to create jobs. It isn’t happening. Workers all over world in every language are crying “Hey rich guy! Where’s my job!”

Game On!

Obama 48% - Huckabee 45%

Obama 47% - Romney 41%

Obama 54% - Palin 36%

Presidential Poll - April 14, 2011, Real Clear Politics - (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/)

With President Obama and Mitt Romney announcing their Presidential bids, the 2012 election is underway.

The President throws his hat in the ring with a personal approval rating moving between 45% and 50%. When you consider the relentless attacks against him by the Republicans, the growing apathy towards him by the Left, and the fights over major policy initiatives, these are good numbers.

The Republican field thus far is crowded and weak.

Polls of the Republican candidates regularly show Mitt Romney and former Governor Mike Huckabee as the front runners. Only Huckabee polls with any chance of beating Obama.

But both candidates have serious problems.

Romney is well, Romney. As inspiring as John Kerry, Romney is viewed with deep suspicion over his progressive past by the right wing fire-eaters who now control the Republican party - and the nomination. His conversion to the current conservative philosophy leaves the left of his party and independent voters wondering if he really stands for anything.

Mike Huckabee is a smooth campaigner, deftly hiding his far right views behind his warm preacher persona. But, once Huckabee starts campaigning, his hard right views will come under the spotlight, only to scare independent and minority voters back to the Democrats. Right how he really doesn’t look like a man who wants to run. The reality is he doesn’t have to until 2016, when most of the current Republican field will be cleared out.

And then there is Donald Trump.

In a recent poll Trump leads Romney and all other Republicans for the nomination. Right now, polls for the Republicans don’t mean much. Presidential polls for the challenger party this early in the cycle, are driven by name recognition. That is why Donald Trump, can drop out of the sky spouting his birther nonsense and become one of the top three Republican candidates.

While this is good news for Donald Trump it is bad news for Sarah Palin.

She has the best name recognition in the Party but runs no higher than fourth in most polls, putting her at the top of the second tier candidates. With her name recognition and “star power” she should be at the top of the polls, being chased by Romney, not in the middle being chased by Ron Paul.

Obama is defining the Presidential election as a choice between asking the “haves” to sacrifice with increased taxes versus the Republicans asking the “have nots” to sacrifice with further Medicare cuts.

With the “Ryan budget” and its focus on cutting Medicare and Social Security while preserving the Bush tax cuts, Democrats have a strong issue that unifies voters against the Republicans. Congressional Democrats are already planning to run ads against the “Ryan budget” in Republican districts nationwide - with extra focus on those districts the Democrats lost in 2010 but that Obama won in 2008.

To win re-election Obama needs to clearly communicate what his administration has done. At first glance much doesn’t seem to have changed since the Bush years. GITMO is still open, troops continue to die in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Bush tax cuts are still in place.

But, there have been changes. There is Health Care Reform. In addition the economic recovery is underway. “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” has been repealed. Wage discrimination against women has been outlawed. The stimulus and bailout packages are working. Ford Motor company has turned a profit rather than shutting its doors. Banks have repaid their bailout money and the American tax payers turned a profit.

While Obama may not be an inspiring firebrand, he does look rational and reliable compared to the Republican frontrunners.

While extremists like Michelle Bachmann, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin are running around the country becoming the face of the Republican Party, candidates who present the greatest danger to Obama like, John Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty are flying under the media radar. When the adults do emerge will the Republican brand be too damaged? How will they convince the voters who have watched the "bait and switch” routines of the governors of Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Michigan that they will not run as moderates and govern as hard right radicals?

Republicans are at the cross roads. Do they go the Bachman route or the Romney route? 2012 could turn out for the Republicans, like 1984 did for the Democrats. The Democrats were in the tight grip of an extreme wing of their party, that chose a philosophical purist to take on a President they had convinced themselves the country hated. Consequently, Walter Mondale was buried in an epic landslide.

The Republicans look like they may make that same mistake. If they do, Obama will enjoy four more years in the White House.