The New Faces of the Grand Old Party - John Ensign and Mark Sanford

This was a whole lot more than a simple affair, this was a love story, a forbidden one, a tragic one, but a love story at the end of the day.
- Gov Mark Sanford

If they didn’t have bad luck they wouldn’t have any luck at all.
- Old saying

First John Ensign, then Mark Sanford. The Republicans have had a bad run of luck. What is the long term effect on the Republican Party of Sen. John Ensign’s (R-NV) affair with Cynthia Hampton and Gov. Mark Sanford’s (R-SC) trip to South America?

The first and most obvious is that ends both men’s careers. Both men were talked of as possible candidates for the Presidency in 2012 and potential leaders of the party’s rebirth. Both men could have taken the blank sheet of voters’ perceptions and written any story they wanted to, but both wrote stories of adultery and betrayal.

Sen. Ensign took the wife of a family friend as a lover. The Senator made sure that his mistress, her husband, and son, were taken care of financially with jobs and promotions. Ensign’s main defense when he was caught was yes I had an affair, but what was really bad was her husband tried to blackmail me. This is truly an odd play for sympathy.

Sanford’s now legendary trip to Argentina, broke trust on so many levels. He lied to his wife, his staff and used state money to go and consummate his love. South Carolina Politics – always a blood sport on its calmest days – has turned into a shark feed.

It will be hard for Republicans to run as the party of family values with Ensign and Sanford are fresh in the voter’s minds. Every time a Republican says “family values”, someone will use Sanford and Ensign to remind voters that the Republican’s family values plank is "watch what we say not what we do.”

Whereas most people don’t know Ensign or Sanford, this does reinforce a negative perception of the Republicans. After all Sanford’s original excuse for leaving the state, was he was hiking the Appalachian Trail to blow off the stress of rejecting stimulus money designed to extend unemployment benefits and improve education. Beating on the helpless is what makes you Republican Presidential timbre.

To be sure the Democrats have their share of the fallen. The John Edward’s sex scandal continues to dribble out. But Edwards was a spent force by the time his scandal broke. It did nothing more than explain why he had dropped out of the 2008 race at such a peculiar time.

The real leader and face of the Democratic Party is President Obama. Now the Republicans have to find someone who can run against a very popular family man who obviously loves his wife and would never jet down to South America on Father’s day.

Who do the Republicans have left?

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn) steered clear of the Coleman/Franken mess. He made it clear Tuesday that he will certify Al Franken as Senator, after the Minnesota Supreme Court unanimously ruled against Norm Coleman. Pawlenty, a front runner for John McCain’s VP pick made it clear he would not sacrifice his future for Coleman. Pawlenty is a young, effective, conservative Governor, who despite his conservative credentials can be marketed as a moderate.

There is also John Thune (R-SD). Thune comes from South Dakota, a Republican state with a long history of being progressive and libertarian. It would be easy to position Thune, as a more moderate Republican. He is also a giant killer having defeated Tom Daschle. Mitch McConnell just appointed Thune to take Ensign’s place in the Republican Senate leadership. This will definitely give the heft he needs to run nationally.

Then there is Gov Huntsman (R-Utah). Obama and his operatives are happy with themselves that they got a strong rival out of the way.

Not so fast. Ambassadors can resign.

There is nothing that keeps Huntsman from coming back from China in 2010 or 2011 to run for the White House. President Obama would be faced with Republican with right wing credentials but who could be marketed as a centrist, and could run on his success both as a Governor and Ambassador.

Bush 41 used his experience in China as a way to solidify his stature as a player on the world stage. Huntsman can do the same. He can claim personal knowledge of the Chinese regime (our largest debt-holder) and make his economic and diplomatic experience key foundations for his candidacy. Finally by being in China, Huntsman avoids being tarred by any future Republican scandals.

Out of chaos comes opportunity.

Scandal has helped clear the field for a new generation of Republicans, much as fire cleans out old trees in a forest. This clearing creates opportunities for Huntsman, Thune and Pawlenty. It creates an opportunity for the Republicans to move into the future if they can seize it