Instant Lame Duck

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice...

- 22 Amendment to the US Constitution ratified in 1947.

In January either Governor Romney or President Obama will be sworn in as President, (get it right this time John Roberts).

But, whoever is sworn in may not be able to govern.

One reason is the hyper-partisan nature of Congress. The Republicans have committed themselves to making Obama fail regardless of the cost to the country, and will continue to obstruct Obama at every turn. If Romney wins the Democrats will go into pay-back mode and block every proposal he makes. Nothing will get done and gridlock will continue for at least another four years.

Another is reason is the 22 Amendment to the Constitution, prevents President Obama from running for re-election. From the moment he lowers his hand after taking the oath of office in January he is a lame duck. Since both sides know this, the election is less about winning in 2012 and more about positioning for 2016.

The logic of the 22 Amendment was to keep the Presidency from being turned into a sinecure by a popular incumbent. FDR’s fourth term was seen as a sign of the future. Who knew whether Eisenhower would become President in 1952 keep on to 1964? (Think of what the world would be like if FDR had been forced to leave office in 1940 to be replaced by Vice President Henry Wallace or Republican nominee Wendell Willkie).

In an era when a Presidential campaign didn’t start until August or September of an election year, a second term President still had three years to make things happen and could easily nail down a third, (or if he were young enough) a fourth or fifth term.

That was then.

Now Presidential elections run for years, not months. News cycles last seconds and minutes, not days and weeks. The 22 Amendment has warped re-election campaigns and second terms.

A President who is running for election has the power to reward his or her friends. A second term President who can’t run, doesn’t. Who wants a patronage job that the opposition won’t confirm you in until the Administration is just about to dismantle? Why give money, time and effort, when you can’t get your just reward?

If you can’t be rewarded you can’t be punished.

It is no accident that in modern times all the major Presidential scandals have happened in a second term. Watergate, Monica, Iran-Contra. The opposition has nothing to fear taking on a lame duck incumbent. But maybe the prospect of “Reagan ’88” buttons or “Clinton in 2000” bumper stickers would have made the opposition less likely to pursue impeachment or Iran-Contra against popular Presidents.

Once a President takes that second oath of office, power slips away with every tick of the clock. They have no political capitol to spend and can safely be ignored.

George Bush found that out the hard way. He said he would expend all his political capitol he amassed in his 2004 re-election on Social Security reform, only to discover he didn’t have any. Why? Because Senate leaders were all testing the waters for their own 2008 Presidential runs and didn’t want to touch something so unpopular.

Then there is the impact the Amendment has on the elections themselves.

In 2012, Democrats, like Gov. Andrew Cuomo, know all they have to do is keep their heads down and tend to their States. Obama will do all the heavy work of getting the economy rolling again and they can reap the benefits when they run four years from now. A potential Democratic candidate like Cuomo sees his chances improve as long as he keeps his distance from the President. Significantly the Governor isn’t even planning to attend the Democratic Convention this year.

The Republicans have made the same calculation. They know they don’t have to defeat Obama, just out-wait him. They can spend four more years simply blocking his programs and run a strong candidate next time around.

That is why all the major Republican powers stepped aside and let Mitt Romney win the nomination. They calculated Romney would loose and clear the way for a stronger candidate from the younger generation like Gov. Chris Christie, or Rep Paul Ryan. These men are young, so why damage themselves now, trying to unseat an incumbent who will be term limited out later?

The calculations would be much different if Obama were able to run for a third term. Obama has a steady lead in 2012 with a weak economy. With the economy growing in 2015, Obama would be a formidable candidate. Democrats like Cuomo would have to support the President, fall in line and really work for him.

Republicans would have to make a choice as well. They simply couldn’t run out the clock on Obama and hope to pick up the ball at the whistle. They would have to make the case of why they would be better for the country than the President.

But, thanks in part to the 22 Amendment, both parties are treating their candidates in 2012 as seat warmers for the bigger show in 2016.