Learn to Share

"It's unthinkable that this country will not meet its obligations on time. It's just unthinkable we'd ever do that. It's not going to happen.''

- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on CNN's "State of the Union" 07/25/2011

"You know, what I really want right now is to -- to get a debt ceiling deal for my birthday. That's kind of sad, I know."

- President Obama in an NPR interview answering the question of what he wants for his birthday.

"Show me the Money!"

- Jerry McGuire

The American people know that the Republican position in the debt ceiling debate, of all spending cuts and no revenue increases doesn’t make sense.

Congressional Republicans thought that they could bully President Obama into cutting entitlement programs, then blame him for the collapse of any debt ceiling deal when he wouldn’t. They would get the cuts they wanted and not take any heat for their inflexible anti-tax stands.

Much to their surprise Obama called their bluff.

Obama signed on to large cuts in Social Security and Medicare angering his base. But, he also supported a modest increase of revenue that was based almost entirely on closing tax loopholes. This offer turned into a trap for the Republican who now appear they are more interested in protecting their “no tax increase” pledge to Grover Norquist than the world economic system.

When Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) walked away from a deal not once but twice, he missed a huge opportunity to get everything he said Republicans wanted. Now the Senate will step in with a more moderate proposal that will pass the Senate quickly, which the House will be forced to accept.

If Congressional Republicans don’t cooperate, they will suffer a tremendous backlash as average voters pay a high price for their intransigence. Maybe that will jolt the Party back to reality.

Since 2000 Republicans have operated in a political atmosphere where facts mean nothing and spin means everything. The Bush tax cuts didn’t create jobs and under-taxed rich people are not “Job Creators.” The Bush Administration has one of the worst job creation records of any modern Presidency. All the Republican economic policy has done is squander the Clinton Surplus and create an economic catastrophe. Yet the Republicans remain committed to repeatedly driving over the same cliff. Economic reality simply don’t matter as much as keeping their Tea Party base happy.

And they have to.

The Republican establishment looked the other way for years and years as the anti-tax crazies, xenophobic nativists, and the hard core Christian right, took over Republican Party organizations in State after State. Even before these groups formed into the Tea Party movement, the Republican establishment thought they could control them and treated them with the same condescension as the Liberal establishment.

They were wrong.

Those activists have now worked their way up through the ranks to the national stage. Their loyalties are not to the Republican establishment, or even big business. Their loyalties are to each other. They can ignore the establishment and rely on each other for funding and volunteers. Furthermore, Citizens United insulates them from the need for big business or Party money. Outside groups from all over the country can come into any Congressional District and drop lots of money on extremest candidates far to the right of the voters.

As a result Congressional Tea Partiers have no need for, and nothing to fear from the establishment groups that ran the Party for years.

The Senate is a different matter. Senators need the support of big business to run expensive statewide campaigns. They don’t share the hard core self destructive fanaticism of the House and they need a deal that doesn’t hurt their big business donors.

Unfortunately for them, the Republicans have trapped themselves in an anti-revenue philosophy driven by the hard right of their party. (http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/168895-gop-gets-it-wrong-on-tax-increases). Their position is not held by the American voter, and is far outside of the main stream. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/13/house-republicans-no-tax-stance-far-outside-political-mainstream/).

Skepticism of the “cut only” philosophy runs long and deep. A recent compilation of polls show 19 different polls validate the findings that Americans support revenue increases along with spending cuts as a way balance the budget. (http://www.capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/2292/americans-support-higher-taxes-really).

Republicans need only to look to Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio, to see what can happen to them nationally, if they don’t moderate their position. These three states had freshman Republican Governors who took office in January with high approval ratings only to devastate those ratings with hard core, ideologically driven policies that were immensely popular with their hard core base, but far out of line with voters beliefs.

If they don’t cooperate on some sort of deal, the budget debate will be devastating for the Republicans in 2012. Right now the Democrats look like the only adults in the room and the Republicans look like a spoiled, self-centered child in the middle of a tantrum.

For the future of their Party and for the future of the Country it is time they grew up and learned to share.

A Tough Road Ahead

- 47% of Registered Voters would vote for an un-named Republican Candidate, and only 37% would vote for President Obama - Gallup Poll released July 14, 2011

(http://www.gallup.com/poll/148487/Republican-Candidate-Extends-Lead-Obama.aspx)

Michele Bachmann’s red meat line is how she can make Obama a one term president. It is possible, but it won’t be as easy as she thinks.

President Obama’s approval ratings move within a narrow confine in the high 40’s and are a statistical tie with his disapproval rating.

Obama’s challenge is not his poll numbers but the Electoral College.

In 2008, Obama won the Presidency with 365 Electoral votes - 95 votes more than he needed to win. He broadened the Democratic map winning Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Indiana for a combined 112 Electoral votes. These were all states John Kerry lost. Al Gore won only two of them - New Mexico and Iowa. (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/04/05/us/politics/key-states-for-obama.html)

To win Republicans, will have to flip many of these states back to the “Red” column.

Republicans are in a strong position to reclaim North Carolina. They control both houses of the State Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction, and the Democratic Governor is unpopular. In 2008, Obama won this state by less than a percentage point. Even with the Democratic convention being held in Charlotte, North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes will likely go back to the Republicans.

In 2008 Virginia voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate for the first time since 1964. It will be a tight Presidential race in 2012. However, Obama continues to out poll Republican candidates in the state, and has had a strong approval rating in the state throughout the year (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/obama-still-strong-in-virginia.html). African Americans in Virginia remain loyal to Obama, as do white voters. With a long history of voting Republican, Virginia could slip back to the Red column, but the Republicans will have to expend resources they may not have to make that happen.

Indiana is a reliably Red state that got pulled into the Blue column by the strong anti Bush undertow. Pull the 39 Electoral votes from North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana out, and Obama still has 326 Electoral Votes. To win, Republicans will have to pick up 56 more votes, which they can do by a combination of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and flipping one more medium size 2008 Obama State.

Florida has voted for the Democratic candidate twice in the past four cycles, but voted solidly for the Republican only once in that time - 2004. Currently Florida’s Governor is a hard core Tea Party Conservative and is the most unpopular Governor in the nation. With Obama’s outreach to Hispanics, the unpopularity of the Tea Party Governor, and Ryan Plan to restructure Medicare, Florida is definitely in play and Obama has the tools the nail the state down.

John Kerry lost Ohio by 2%. Obama won it by 6%. But the Republicans have taken over the state since them, and have enacted a raft of unpopular legislation. The weak popularity of the Republican governor could help Obama, if he makes the case that with a Republican President, these unpopular state laws will become national policy.

In 2008, Obama won Pennsylvania by 10 points. But today only 47% of Pennsylvania voters support his re-election. Interestingly, his main weakness is with former “Hillary” voters. (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/obama-weak-in-pennsylvania.html). The Republicans are even weaker. Only Mitt Romney is competitive with Obama, who handily beats all other Republican hopefuls in the Keystone State. It is hard to imagine “Hilary” voters staying home or voting Republican in 2012. When they return to Obama, Republicans will have their work cut out for them.

In 2008, an increase in Hispanic and Black voters, turned Georgia from a deep Red state to a light pink. Atlanta has one of the fastest growing populations of African Americans in the county. It also has a growing Hispanic population that could support the President. Georgia will be a state Republicans have previously taken for granted, on which they will now have to concentrate resources.

Obama’s team knows they have a tough map. Unlike the Republicans they can take all their resources and focus them on the general election now.

And those resources are considerable.

Team Obama has already raised close to $86 million ($21 Million were from donations of $200 or less). They are able to build on the 50 state infrastructure they created in 2008 along with Howard Dean. (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/56565.html).

The Republicans lag far behind the President in fundraising. Combined they raised less than the President. (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-money-2012-20110716,0,6297117.story) Governor Mitt Romney raised the most money of the Republican candidates with $13 Million dollars - over three times the $4 Million raised each by, Rep. Ron Paul, Governor Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Overall the Republicans have a weak field of candidates to convince the country it wants what they have to offer. Unfortunately for them, they can’t run an “un-named” Republican for President.

A Patriotic Act

“Our Country was founded on Dissent!”

- The reaction of Ann, a friend of the Operadem, to a yard sign in New York

Ann was reading a homemade yard-sign proclaiming “Dissent is Patriotic,” posted in front of a house in upstate New York. She is right. Our country was built on a solid foundation of dissent.

In a recent survey, 24% of respondents couldn’t identify the country from whom we won our independence. Americans see the founders as bewigged men signing the Declaration of Independence and then going home to idle away the time to the inevitable victory at Yorktown, after which George Washington becomes the first President. Other than Jefferson, best known for his memorial and Sally Hemmings, there were no Presidents until Abraham Lincoln, who saved the Union for Teddy Roosevelt of the Rough Riders.

So it is not surprising the hard, sharp edge of our revolutionary past is hidden under store sales and fireworks.

But, it was the sharp knife of dissent, that carved our nation out of the British Empire. The revolution started because the British Government didn’t listen to dissent. They viewed the dissenting colonialists as a small minority, in a loyal colony.

The heavy handed reaction of Britain to the patriots began to unify the colonies into a country. With large English armies roving the country, carrying out a scorched earth policy, Americans began to unify around the revolution and the concept of a new nation.

What began as dissent from the British government ended in the creation of a new nation.

Throughout the years of the Articles of Confederation, the new American government drifted and after 11 years was non-functioning. Again dissenters took over and drafted a new government to overthrow and replace the old.

But, the Constitution’s ratification was not a foregone conclusion. Dissenters, who opposed its ratification - extracted a price for their support. That price was a package of amendments that became the Bill of Rights, which guarantees dissent can continue and not be seen as treason.

Dissent was enshrined in the constitution.

Since its ratification, most of the changes to the constitution have come about as a result of some national trauma and debate. Whether it was giving women and eighteen year olds the right to vote, the great Civil War amendments, or even something as technical as how the Vice President is elected and appointed, the constitution was changed by open honest dissent.

Dissent is not only patriotic it is vital. It is our right and duty to speak up for what we see needs to be changed in our government.

Dissent is why America has been able to grow, adapt and in some cases drive change in the world. Countries that don’t allow dissent, wither and die under their own weight and encrustations.

As we watch fireworks, wave flags - and yes go shopping - we need to remember the greatest patriotic act we can do to keep this country alive and moving forward is an act of dissent.