Republican Cross-roads

Obama is the most serious radical threat to traditional America ever to occupy the White House."

- Newt Gingrich, quoted in a new book, Subversion Inc., as reported by the American Spectator. (http://politicalwire.com/)

The 2012 Republican Presidential campaign is swirling across the national political landscape like a dust-storm.

2012 will be the final battle between the “Establishment” and the “Tea Party” for the soul of the Republican Party. Whichever side wins the nomination only to lose the election will be on the outside looking in on 2016 and beyond.

How will the election playout for the Republicans?

What happened to the Democrats in 1984, 2004 and 1912 highlight three likely scenarios.

In 1984 the Democrats were convinced America hated President Ronald Reagan. The 1982 recession left a lot of pain in its wake, and Reagan’s poll numbers were not much better than Obama’s. (President Obama’s current approval rating is 47%. At the same point in June of 1983 President Reagan’s approval rating was - 47%. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx)).

The Democratic field was crowded with eight serious candidates crossing the political spectrum from the more conservative Sen. Fitz Hollings (D-SC), through former Vice President Walter Mondale. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_1984#Candidates)

But the Democratic Party’s liberal wing controlled the nominating process. With the centrists out of power, the nomination was won by the more ideologically pure candidate, Vice President Walter Mondale. President Reagan was able to build on the coalition of centrists and conservative Democrats he began in 1980, to win re-election in an historic landslide. In the process, Reagan turned those voters into “Reagan Democrats” which were the basis for Republican victories in 1988, 2000 and 2004.

In 2011 the Republicans find themselves in a similar situation.

Currently eight candidates are running with two or three more waiting in the wings. All of them are to the right of the American electorate. The conservatives are in control of the Party nominating process. By nominating a candidate on the far right of the spectrum the Republicans are leaving centrist Republicans, and moderate Independents open for Obama to consolidated into a Democratic coalition in the same way Reagan consolidated the Reagan Democrats a generation earlier.

If that happens, the Republicans may suffer a historic landslide much like the Democrats did in 1984.

In 2004, the main qualification Democrats were looking for in a nominee was someone who could beat President Bush. Their assumption was that Bush was so unpopular and incompetent that the voters would naturally support any candidate that was not like Bush, regardless of their positions or qualifications.

The bumper sticker “Kerry/Edwards - bringing complete sentences to the White House” perfectly summed up their view of the election.

The moment Sen. John Kerry (D - Mass) emerged as a front runner the Democrats nominated him. After the convention Kerry spent more time campaigning as the un-Bush, and never addressed the issues that mattered most to the voters until it was too late. Ironically, it was Sen. Obama’s moving convention speech that underscored Kerry’s weakness both as a candidate and a campaigner.

The Republicans could easily coalesce around a weak candidate like Gov. Mitt Romney or Gov. Tim Pawlenty under the delusion that all Americans hate Obama with the same passion they do. Republicans, spend more time deriding Obama, and looking down their nose at him, then they do articulating a coherent program that Americans can believe in.

They, like the Democrats in 2004, are speaking in an echo chamber to a very narrow band of supporters. Meanwhile, the incumbent is raising close to a billion dollars to support his re-election, while actively reaching out to groups, like Hispanics, moderates, and the middle-class, that the Republicans have left behind.

As a result in 2012, the Republicans may be as stunned the Wednesday after election day as the Democrats were in 2004.

In 1912, President Teddy Roosevelt was deeply disappointed in his hand picked successor President William Howard Taft. In Roosevelt’s view, Taft was unwilling to follow through on the progressive policies the former President had left in his care. Angry and disappointed, Roosevelt bolted the party and ran as a “Bull Moose.” The Republicans split, and as result Woodrow Wilson became only the second Democrat to enter the White House since 1856.

The Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, with its substantial amount of money and volunteers, has already shown that they are reluctant to support a moderate like Romney. If Romney is the nominee, the Tea Party may bolt and run Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Min) or Huckabee. At best they will sit on their hands and not provide any meaningful support to the Presidential nominee and turn their focus in ensuring Tea Party control of the House and Senate.

Without Tea Party support, Romney will lose to Obama.

Republican candidates actively ignore the fact that they are less popular than the President, and their policies have little support outside the right wing of their Party. In only one poll out of dozens released in the last month does a Republican candidate (Mitt Romney) beat Obama. In all other polls, Obama soundly beats all Republican candidates - including Romney (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html)

A lot will happen between now and election day. But right now the Republicans are standing at a cross-roads, choosing which path they will follow to defeat.

Are you serious?

I will not rest until Obamacare is repealed…It’s a promise, take it to the bank, cash the check.
- Michele Bachmann in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Debate 6/13/2011

On Monday, the 2012 Presidential election shifted gears when the first major debate for Republican Presidential candidates was held in New Hampshire and broadcast on CNN. This field of Republicans is smoother and more articulate than the group that ran in 2008. They expressed their extremism and pessimism in rational, friendly tones.

The person who had the best night was Michele Bachmann (R-Minn), who, more than any other candidate on stage, connected with the crowd. In her introduction, she announced her candidacy for Presidency, thus guaranteeing news coverage. This was the first time she was on a national stage and she did well. She made sure that everyone knew that she is a member of the House Intelligence Committee, a Tax Attorney and a former State Legislator. She come off as rational and telegenic - not the crazy person the press had described.

In short she made sure everyone understood she was everything Sarah Palin was not.

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn) had the worst night. Gov. Pawlenty has been running for President ever since 2008, when John McCain passed him over for the Vice-Presidential slot in favor of Sarah Palin. He had a chance to build on a strong performance on Sunday where he called Health Care reform “Obamney Care”. That could have stuck to Governor Mitt Romney like glue. But when asked about the comment, Pawlenty didn’t back it up. Instead he repeatedly quoted the usual line about Obama using Romney as a model. Romney simply smiled and turned the Obamney care line to his advantage and wiggled away.

Pawlenty had his chance to be the Anti-Romney, by appealing to the centrist Republicans, while using his right to life credentials to reach out to the social conservatives. All he did was leave that slot open for former Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT).

Former Senator Rick Santoroum (R-Penn) failed to make the case of why he is more likely than Romney, Pawlenty or Bachmann to defeat Obama. By the end of the evening, Santoroum was the obvious alternative only to Ron Paul and Herman Cain. He never lost that eager-beaver air of “young man on the make” condescension that makes him so annoying on TV.

Newt Gingrich (R-GA) did well. After all the press he has as a motor-mouth idea hamster, he come off as intelligent informed and articulate. But, at times he seemed more interested in saving his reputation than becoming President.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex) descended into gad-fly territory and will be the Republican’s Ralph Nader for several more cycles.

Unless you listened closely, the candidates' answers sounded quite logical.

Tim Pawlenty said we could have 5% a year growth like China if only the government would get out of the way of American businesses - ignoring the fact that China has one of the most government directed economies in the world.

The isolationists have a firm grip on the Party. All the candidates derided France’s leadership in the Libyan air war. Michele Bachmann went so far as to say the US can’t lead from behind. At same time they all said we should pull out of our foreign commitments in Iraq, Afghanistan - and Libya where according to Bachmann, we should be leading.

Now that the Republicans have figured out they may need Hispanics votes to win, this year the only overt race baiting was against Muslims. Herman Cain said he wouldn't appoint killer Muslims to his government. Newt Gingrich compared Muslims to Nazi’s.

The Republicans are all about letting market forces revive the slumping the housing market. But foreclosures are the Achilles heel of the recovery. If people are about to be evicted they won't buy anything. The candidates had no plans for saving people's homes, preferring to let the market's invisible hand throw them out on the street.

Michele Bachmann thinks there is “a lot of noise in the media” about health care exception cases which are an irrelevant, miniscule portion of women who seek abortions. If your wife needs an abortion to live, then she is not a miniscule portion and is highly relevant.

The gaffe no one picked up on, was Rick Santoroum’s comment that he had “taken the bullets” in the right to life fight. The last person who took the “bullet in the right to life battle” was an abortion doctor - executed by an operation rescue volunteer as the Doctor was leaving church.

Sometimes the Republican’s miss-statements were so glaring that you wondered why CNN’s moderator, John King didn’t challenge them. Tim Pawlenty said “birth right” citizenship was the result of a Supreme Court decision that went against the constitution. Interesting considering the 14th Amendment explicitly grants it.

The audience and questioners matched the Republican demographic. They were old and white. The only person of color I saw at the debate was candidate Herman Cain. There were hardly any young people there, and those that were, appeared to be members of the candidates’ family.

At the end of the debate, it was clear that Mitt Romney was the man to beat, and that regardless of who won the nomination; Michele Bachmann was going to be on the ticket. So when Anderson Cooper said “each candidate on the stage has a good chance to be President” you could only scratch your head and ask “Are you serious?”

Only a few candidates could say “Yes.”

Silenced by a Tweet

“But I know immoral sex when I hear it from other members, and no one has screamed for their resignation. So I don't know why they're selecting Anthony."

- Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) Quoted in the New York Observer

With all respect to Rep. Charlie Rangel, Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) should resign.

He needs to resign because for the past two weeks he has become “the story” and this is the only way to kill it.

Despite the length of his press conference confession, Weiner didn’t come clean.

He wasn’t open about the number of women he contacted. He wasn’t open about the number or type of pictures that he sent. He couldn’t say if the women he contacted were under age. Throughout the week, interviews with some of the women he contacted have been in the news, other pictures have surfaced, as have reports that he may have contacted at least one underage woman.

Consequently, the story continues to dominate the press.

Before the Weiner scandal broke the Democrat’s win in former NY Republican Rep. Chris Lee’s district was the political news story. The Democrats won that district, when they erased a significant Republican lead by running against the Medicare voucher program contained in the “Ryan Budget.” For once the Republicans headed for the hills and liberal Democrats enjoyed a rare taste of victory while dominating both the message and momentum.

Because of Anthony Weiner that is all gone now

For over two weeks the press coverage has been all Weiner all the time. The Republicans have used the noise created by the scandal to leave the Ryan budget for dead and to change the story back to the unemployment numbers and the overall economy.

The current job numbers makes it harder for the Democrats to change the message back to Medicare - a theme that could help them win elections. Weiner’s Tweets may be a major factor if the House stays Republican.

We are now past the point of activists pouring through campaign finance reports or the Congressional record to surface unsavory activities. There are groups on both sides of the aisle, sitting upstairs at home, with their lap tops, drink in hand monitoring politicians’ websites and social media for patterns to trap them in the next scandal.

In today’s world you don’t need to physically follow candidates like Gary Hart or John Edwards to trap them. You can, like the person how outed Weiner, sit at home, with a group of like minded people and closely monitor your target on line.

So when Weiner posted his now famous photo, Republican activists who had picked up on his tendency to suddenly “friend” women on Facebook were waiting. This is why they were able to get a screen capture of his photo even though the picture was up for less than 10 minutes.

Politicians need to learn that every day, technology makes it easier than ever to monitor and prove their actions. It is now easier to catch politicians out in a lie, an affair, or a suspect business deal than it ever has been before, And it is now harder for politicians to survive by denying their actions to create sufficient doubt about their guilt.

Now more than ever the golden rule of scandal is to admit it and move on. The coverup is worse than the crime. Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) knew that, held his press conference, kept his head down and was reelected. Elliot Spitzer (D-NY) admitted his sins early enough that he was able to put together a post scandal life as a respected commentator. John Edwards broke the golden rule and look where it got him.

I am angry at Representative Weiner.

He became a strong progressive spokesman when many liberals seemed afraid to speak up. His reckless actions cost us a strong a liberal voice at a critical time for both the Party and the country.

And for that alone he should resign.

A Scandalous Posting

There's no question that I've done wrong, but I did not break the law and I never, ever thought I was breaking the law."

- John Edwards responding to his indictment for violating campaign finance laws

“You know, I can’t say with certitude. We know for sure I didn’t send this photograph”

- Rep. Anthony Weiner - (D-NY) when asked if the photo tweeted on his account is of him

If you enjoy political sex scandals this past week has been a good one.

John Edwards, in the sex scandal that keeps on giving, was indicted for filling false campaign finance reports to conceal the fact that he was using nearly a million dollars of donors’ money to hide and support his mistress and their child.

Arrogance breeds stupidity. It was almost deranged that Edwards, in the 24/7 scandal mongering news environment of modern America, thought he could hide a mistress and a child while running for President.

Even Grover Cleveland couldn’t do that.

It isn’t that Edwards did something dumb. It was that Edwards repeatedly broke the law in ways that were easy to prove, while coldly using and destroying people to protect himself.

Then there is Anthony Weiner (D-NY) and his twitter account.

A picture of a man’s “package” tightly held in a pair of briefs was sent to a young woman in Seattle from Weiner’s twitter account. Weiner says he can’t tell for sure if the picture is of him. He maintains his account was hacked, but he thinks it was a prank and therefore hasn’t asked law enforcement to investigate.

The recipient of the picture states Rep. Weiner may have intended to send it to a porn star with a name similar to hers who follows him on twitter, but she received it by mistake. Darn type-ahead will get you every time.

The Republicans, smell blood.

They were behind breaking the story, and they continue to feed it. How many 20 year old women know a lot about porn stars? How did the woman who received the tweet know that a porn star was following Weiner on Twitter and that the two may have corresponded? Interesting how this came out in an interview with the NY Post.

If he sent it, it was stupid and disrespectful, but it wasn’t illegal. Because of Weiner’s serious mishandling of the press the story has traction. We are now reading more stories about Wiener’s tweet than of Moody’s threat to lower the US Debt rating - an act much more likely to studied in history class in the years ahead.

If John Edwards broke the law he got what he deserves. But is Anthony Weiner, who broke no laws, getting what he deserves? Are we getting what we deserve?

Is the bar for personal behavior now raised so high that good people don’t even try to jump over it?

Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels, is sitting out this Presidential cycle. Not because he has done anything wrong, or that he has a poor chance of winning. He is out because he doesn't want to subject his wife and family to an examination of a painful period of their marriage that occurred over 15 years ago. Neither Daniels or his wife broke a law. They hit a rough patch and have since reconciled. What occurred has nothing to do with whether or not Gov. Daniels would make a good President.

But in the venomous world of Presidential politics, it isn’t hard to imagine the Daniels’ marriage becoming a political football.

The hunger for scandal is so strong that it would have consumed the story of the Daniels relationship with the same gusto as John Edwards breaking the law to hide his love child.

Its this lack of perspective, which puts the transgressions of Anthony Weiner and John Edwards on the same level, that does the country a disservice. At a time when we need all the talent we can get, good people like Gov. Mitch Daniels are frightened away from even trying to help.

That is a bigger problem than an errant Tweet.