A Tough Road Ahead

- 47% of Registered Voters would vote for an un-named Republican Candidate, and only 37% would vote for President Obama - Gallup Poll released July 14, 2011

(http://www.gallup.com/poll/148487/Republican-Candidate-Extends-Lead-Obama.aspx)

Michele Bachmann’s red meat line is how she can make Obama a one term president. It is possible, but it won’t be as easy as she thinks.

President Obama’s approval ratings move within a narrow confine in the high 40’s and are a statistical tie with his disapproval rating.

Obama’s challenge is not his poll numbers but the Electoral College.

In 2008, Obama won the Presidency with 365 Electoral votes - 95 votes more than he needed to win. He broadened the Democratic map winning Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Indiana for a combined 112 Electoral votes. These were all states John Kerry lost. Al Gore won only two of them - New Mexico and Iowa. (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/04/05/us/politics/key-states-for-obama.html)

To win Republicans, will have to flip many of these states back to the “Red” column.

Republicans are in a strong position to reclaim North Carolina. They control both houses of the State Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction, and the Democratic Governor is unpopular. In 2008, Obama won this state by less than a percentage point. Even with the Democratic convention being held in Charlotte, North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes will likely go back to the Republicans.

In 2008 Virginia voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate for the first time since 1964. It will be a tight Presidential race in 2012. However, Obama continues to out poll Republican candidates in the state, and has had a strong approval rating in the state throughout the year (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/obama-still-strong-in-virginia.html). African Americans in Virginia remain loyal to Obama, as do white voters. With a long history of voting Republican, Virginia could slip back to the Red column, but the Republicans will have to expend resources they may not have to make that happen.

Indiana is a reliably Red state that got pulled into the Blue column by the strong anti Bush undertow. Pull the 39 Electoral votes from North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana out, and Obama still has 326 Electoral Votes. To win, Republicans will have to pick up 56 more votes, which they can do by a combination of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and flipping one more medium size 2008 Obama State.

Florida has voted for the Democratic candidate twice in the past four cycles, but voted solidly for the Republican only once in that time - 2004. Currently Florida’s Governor is a hard core Tea Party Conservative and is the most unpopular Governor in the nation. With Obama’s outreach to Hispanics, the unpopularity of the Tea Party Governor, and Ryan Plan to restructure Medicare, Florida is definitely in play and Obama has the tools the nail the state down.

John Kerry lost Ohio by 2%. Obama won it by 6%. But the Republicans have taken over the state since them, and have enacted a raft of unpopular legislation. The weak popularity of the Republican governor could help Obama, if he makes the case that with a Republican President, these unpopular state laws will become national policy.

In 2008, Obama won Pennsylvania by 10 points. But today only 47% of Pennsylvania voters support his re-election. Interestingly, his main weakness is with former “Hillary” voters. (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/obama-weak-in-pennsylvania.html). The Republicans are even weaker. Only Mitt Romney is competitive with Obama, who handily beats all other Republican hopefuls in the Keystone State. It is hard to imagine “Hilary” voters staying home or voting Republican in 2012. When they return to Obama, Republicans will have their work cut out for them.

In 2008, an increase in Hispanic and Black voters, turned Georgia from a deep Red state to a light pink. Atlanta has one of the fastest growing populations of African Americans in the county. It also has a growing Hispanic population that could support the President. Georgia will be a state Republicans have previously taken for granted, on which they will now have to concentrate resources.

Obama’s team knows they have a tough map. Unlike the Republicans they can take all their resources and focus them on the general election now.

And those resources are considerable.

Team Obama has already raised close to $86 million ($21 Million were from donations of $200 or less). They are able to build on the 50 state infrastructure they created in 2008 along with Howard Dean. (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/56565.html).

The Republicans lag far behind the President in fundraising. Combined they raised less than the President. (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-money-2012-20110716,0,6297117.story) Governor Mitt Romney raised the most money of the Republican candidates with $13 Million dollars - over three times the $4 Million raised each by, Rep. Ron Paul, Governor Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Overall the Republicans have a weak field of candidates to convince the country it wants what they have to offer. Unfortunately for them, they can’t run an “un-named” Republican for President.