Republican Cross-roads

Obama is the most serious radical threat to traditional America ever to occupy the White House."

- Newt Gingrich, quoted in a new book, Subversion Inc., as reported by the American Spectator. (http://politicalwire.com/)

The 2012 Republican Presidential campaign is swirling across the national political landscape like a dust-storm.

2012 will be the final battle between the “Establishment” and the “Tea Party” for the soul of the Republican Party. Whichever side wins the nomination only to lose the election will be on the outside looking in on 2016 and beyond.

How will the election playout for the Republicans?

What happened to the Democrats in 1984, 2004 and 1912 highlight three likely scenarios.

In 1984 the Democrats were convinced America hated President Ronald Reagan. The 1982 recession left a lot of pain in its wake, and Reagan’s poll numbers were not much better than Obama’s. (President Obama’s current approval rating is 47%. At the same point in June of 1983 President Reagan’s approval rating was - 47%. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx)).

The Democratic field was crowded with eight serious candidates crossing the political spectrum from the more conservative Sen. Fitz Hollings (D-SC), through former Vice President Walter Mondale. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_1984#Candidates)

But the Democratic Party’s liberal wing controlled the nominating process. With the centrists out of power, the nomination was won by the more ideologically pure candidate, Vice President Walter Mondale. President Reagan was able to build on the coalition of centrists and conservative Democrats he began in 1980, to win re-election in an historic landslide. In the process, Reagan turned those voters into “Reagan Democrats” which were the basis for Republican victories in 1988, 2000 and 2004.

In 2011 the Republicans find themselves in a similar situation.

Currently eight candidates are running with two or three more waiting in the wings. All of them are to the right of the American electorate. The conservatives are in control of the Party nominating process. By nominating a candidate on the far right of the spectrum the Republicans are leaving centrist Republicans, and moderate Independents open for Obama to consolidated into a Democratic coalition in the same way Reagan consolidated the Reagan Democrats a generation earlier.

If that happens, the Republicans may suffer a historic landslide much like the Democrats did in 1984.

In 2004, the main qualification Democrats were looking for in a nominee was someone who could beat President Bush. Their assumption was that Bush was so unpopular and incompetent that the voters would naturally support any candidate that was not like Bush, regardless of their positions or qualifications.

The bumper sticker “Kerry/Edwards - bringing complete sentences to the White House” perfectly summed up their view of the election.

The moment Sen. John Kerry (D - Mass) emerged as a front runner the Democrats nominated him. After the convention Kerry spent more time campaigning as the un-Bush, and never addressed the issues that mattered most to the voters until it was too late. Ironically, it was Sen. Obama’s moving convention speech that underscored Kerry’s weakness both as a candidate and a campaigner.

The Republicans could easily coalesce around a weak candidate like Gov. Mitt Romney or Gov. Tim Pawlenty under the delusion that all Americans hate Obama with the same passion they do. Republicans, spend more time deriding Obama, and looking down their nose at him, then they do articulating a coherent program that Americans can believe in.

They, like the Democrats in 2004, are speaking in an echo chamber to a very narrow band of supporters. Meanwhile, the incumbent is raising close to a billion dollars to support his re-election, while actively reaching out to groups, like Hispanics, moderates, and the middle-class, that the Republicans have left behind.

As a result in 2012, the Republicans may be as stunned the Wednesday after election day as the Democrats were in 2004.

In 1912, President Teddy Roosevelt was deeply disappointed in his hand picked successor President William Howard Taft. In Roosevelt’s view, Taft was unwilling to follow through on the progressive policies the former President had left in his care. Angry and disappointed, Roosevelt bolted the party and ran as a “Bull Moose.” The Republicans split, and as result Woodrow Wilson became only the second Democrat to enter the White House since 1856.

The Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, with its substantial amount of money and volunteers, has already shown that they are reluctant to support a moderate like Romney. If Romney is the nominee, the Tea Party may bolt and run Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Min) or Huckabee. At best they will sit on their hands and not provide any meaningful support to the Presidential nominee and turn their focus in ensuring Tea Party control of the House and Senate.

Without Tea Party support, Romney will lose to Obama.

Republican candidates actively ignore the fact that they are less popular than the President, and their policies have little support outside the right wing of their Party. In only one poll out of dozens released in the last month does a Republican candidate (Mitt Romney) beat Obama. In all other polls, Obama soundly beats all Republican candidates - including Romney (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html)

A lot will happen between now and election day. But right now the Republicans are standing at a cross-roads, choosing which path they will follow to defeat.