Game On!

Obama 48% - Huckabee 45%

Obama 47% - Romney 41%

Obama 54% - Palin 36%

Presidential Poll - April 14, 2011, Real Clear Politics - (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/)

With President Obama and Mitt Romney announcing their Presidential bids, the 2012 election is underway.

The President throws his hat in the ring with a personal approval rating moving between 45% and 50%. When you consider the relentless attacks against him by the Republicans, the growing apathy towards him by the Left, and the fights over major policy initiatives, these are good numbers.

The Republican field thus far is crowded and weak.

Polls of the Republican candidates regularly show Mitt Romney and former Governor Mike Huckabee as the front runners. Only Huckabee polls with any chance of beating Obama.

But both candidates have serious problems.

Romney is well, Romney. As inspiring as John Kerry, Romney is viewed with deep suspicion over his progressive past by the right wing fire-eaters who now control the Republican party - and the nomination. His conversion to the current conservative philosophy leaves the left of his party and independent voters wondering if he really stands for anything.

Mike Huckabee is a smooth campaigner, deftly hiding his far right views behind his warm preacher persona. But, once Huckabee starts campaigning, his hard right views will come under the spotlight, only to scare independent and minority voters back to the Democrats. Right how he really doesn’t look like a man who wants to run. The reality is he doesn’t have to until 2016, when most of the current Republican field will be cleared out.

And then there is Donald Trump.

In a recent poll Trump leads Romney and all other Republicans for the nomination. Right now, polls for the Republicans don’t mean much. Presidential polls for the challenger party this early in the cycle, are driven by name recognition. That is why Donald Trump, can drop out of the sky spouting his birther nonsense and become one of the top three Republican candidates.

While this is good news for Donald Trump it is bad news for Sarah Palin.

She has the best name recognition in the Party but runs no higher than fourth in most polls, putting her at the top of the second tier candidates. With her name recognition and “star power” she should be at the top of the polls, being chased by Romney, not in the middle being chased by Ron Paul.

Obama is defining the Presidential election as a choice between asking the “haves” to sacrifice with increased taxes versus the Republicans asking the “have nots” to sacrifice with further Medicare cuts.

With the “Ryan budget” and its focus on cutting Medicare and Social Security while preserving the Bush tax cuts, Democrats have a strong issue that unifies voters against the Republicans. Congressional Democrats are already planning to run ads against the “Ryan budget” in Republican districts nationwide - with extra focus on those districts the Democrats lost in 2010 but that Obama won in 2008.

To win re-election Obama needs to clearly communicate what his administration has done. At first glance much doesn’t seem to have changed since the Bush years. GITMO is still open, troops continue to die in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Bush tax cuts are still in place.

But, there have been changes. There is Health Care Reform. In addition the economic recovery is underway. “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” has been repealed. Wage discrimination against women has been outlawed. The stimulus and bailout packages are working. Ford Motor company has turned a profit rather than shutting its doors. Banks have repaid their bailout money and the American tax payers turned a profit.

While Obama may not be an inspiring firebrand, he does look rational and reliable compared to the Republican frontrunners.

While extremists like Michelle Bachmann, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin are running around the country becoming the face of the Republican Party, candidates who present the greatest danger to Obama like, John Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty are flying under the media radar. When the adults do emerge will the Republican brand be too damaged? How will they convince the voters who have watched the "bait and switch” routines of the governors of Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Michigan that they will not run as moderates and govern as hard right radicals?

Republicans are at the cross roads. Do they go the Bachman route or the Romney route? 2012 could turn out for the Republicans, like 1984 did for the Democrats. The Democrats were in the tight grip of an extreme wing of their party, that chose a philosophical purist to take on a President they had convinced themselves the country hated. Consequently, Walter Mondale was buried in an epic landslide.

The Republicans look like they may make that same mistake. If they do, Obama will enjoy four more years in the White House.