Surviving the Perfect Storm

A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government – a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials.

- Pew Research Center Poll April 18 2010

Let both sides explore what problems unite us instead of belaboring those problems which divide us.

- President John F. Kennedy’s Inauguration Speech, January 1960.

Times have changed in the 50 years since Kennedy was elected. Reading Kennedy’s inauguration speech is like listening to a Viennese waltz – a beautiful tune reminiscent of time gone by, danced on the edge of the abyss.

Years of anti-government rhetoric from both the left (over Viet-Nam and Watergate) and the right (just about everything else) has corroded the average citizen’s belief in government A poll released by the Pew Research Center on 04/18/10 (http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/606.pdf) shows just how much trust in the government has eroded over the past 50 years.

In the current Pew Research Center Poll 22% of respondents said they trusted government to do the right thing always or most always. In the combined Kennedy/Johnson administration an average of 68% of respondents said they trusted government to do the right thing always or most always.

According to the Pew poll’s findings, whereas only 28% of respondents had a favorable view of congress, 52% said that the political system works fine - it is is Members who are the problem. The more Republican block Obama for the sake of short term political gain the more they will be seen as part of the problem in government. This leaves the Republicans vulnerable to being swept up the same anti–incumbent feelings that threatens Democrats.

In his own inauguration speech President Obama talked about the gathering storm clouds over the country, both economic and political. Since then he has passed a stimulus bill that has begun to create jobs, a major health care reform package, he has signed a SALT treaty, is on the verge of major reforms for Wall Street, immigration and climate control. He has had one of the longest strings of legislative successes of any Democrat since FDR.

So why the negativity?

First is history. One of the strongest drivers of the polls is the economy. Obviously the worse off the economy the more people feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. Each President who has suffered a recession has had his lowest poll numbers when the “his recession” was at its lowest points. For example, Reagan was his lowest point of popularity in the middle of the 1982 recession.

But as the economy improves, so do the polls. Reagan went on win 1984 in a landslide. Looking at the polls today, you can see this is beginning to happen. “Right Track” numbers are starting to ease upwards as the economy is beginning to show life. (http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/issue-rdwt.php). As the economy strengthens anti-incumbent feeling will begin to ease. This will be good for the Democrats.

Second the Republicans have cynically used the Tea Party movement to whip up fear across the nation. The “movement” is largely made up of Republicans and Republican leaning independents. (Discontent’s demography: who backs the Tea Party; New York Times 04/15/10). As Paul Begala said, no one should mistake the Tea Party voter for swing voters.

There is an argument that they are becoming a spent force. The number Tea Party members who showed up to nationwide protests on April 15 – Tax Day – were far less than predicted. Only 10,000 showed in Washington, less than the number forecast and less than the number who showed to protest the stimulus bill. (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36185.html). Only 31% of the respondents in the Pew poll from April 18th even knew what the Tea Party movement was. Yet they have gotten caught up in the echo chamber of the media. Pew Center’s Project For Excellence in the Media noted that only the volcano in Iceland received more coverage the week of April 15.

The Republicans are now developing political problems of their own, that make it harder for them to win in November. They will have to contend with Arizona’s new immigration law, which will alienate Hispanic voters. In addition, they have muffed their message on Wall Street reform. They started out using the same take-over lie that they used during the health care debate. But that fell apart and they are now being portrayed as puppets for the same people who brought you the economic collapse. They are walking away from the climate control bill for procedural reasons, not through any philosophical differences.

Each one of these issues potentially alienates a constituency Republicans will need to win over to elect their increasingly extreme and doctrinaire candidates. Individually the loss of any one of these constituencies won’t turn the tide to the Democrats, but taken together they could make the difference.

To win the Republican need to reach out and talk about what they will do other than not being Democrats. On the other hand the Democrats have an easier job, all they have to do is not lose confidence and talk about an increasingly long list of accomplishments and how they help the average voter.

The more the Democrats do that, the better the chances that the clouds from this perfect storm of distrust will clear, and people will start believing in their government again.

Save your Confederate Money...

“April is the month in which the people of Virginia joined the Confederate States of America in a four year war between the states for independence that concluded at Appomattox Courthouse.”
- Gov Bob McDonnell’s Declaration of Confederate History Month

"I think this country is on the edge of a rebellion."
- Newt Gingrich, quoted by NBC News, speaking to the National Lawyer's Association.

"Do they not know that the Yankees have got the atomic bomb now?"
- Former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes (D), quoted by the Athens Banner-Herald, on Georgia Republicans threatening to secede from the United States.

The controversy around Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell’s (R-Va.) declaration of Confederate History month misses a larger point. What drove most of the coverage was McDonnell ‘s failure to mention slaves or slavery in his proclamation. Would his declaration been a good one had he mentioned slavery?

No.

But McDonnell really doesn’t care because the proclamation was an anti-government dog whistle to other nullifiers and state’s rights advocates, and in that context his declaration was dangerous. These positions strike directly at the roots of the Union.

The doctrines of “States Rights” and “Nullification” where were used in defense of slavery throughout the early and mid 19th century. They led directly to the Civil War. Let’s not romanticize this war. 11 states committed treason. That treason resulted in four year of armed conflict that killed 600,000 soldiers. For an equivalent casualty rate in today’s population, 5,000,000 US soldiers would have to fall in Afghanistan. The Civil War left one region of the country so economically prostrate that it took 130 years to recover.

All of this so people could own people.

Now these same doctrines are being thrown around again, in a cynical attempt by the Republican leadership to raise money and gain votes. Since 1964 the Republican Party began basing their doctrines on smaller, less intrusive government. Slowly from Reagan on the doctrine has shifted from big government is wrong to government is wrong. Once you get to government is wrong the next step is either to cripple the government or end it.

Consequently, the nullification doctrines are gaining political currency in the Republican Party. The strength and success of this country has been a strong central government that binds the interests of states as different as Idaho and California, Maine and Florida together. Hack at those bonds, and you risk breaking the country apart. We would become 50 different government entities going their separate ways. Washington DC would have no more power than Brussels does in the European Union.

All this so health insurance companies can deny people coverage for pre-existing conditions.

As the 15th Anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing approached, President Clinton warned that the anti-government right was becoming more dangerous. In the mid 90’s the anti-government radicals were independent and disorganized. A lot of them were weekend warrior wannabe’s running around in the woods in army surplus gear, hiding from “black helicopters” and hunting for codes on the back of road signs that were supposed guide an invading US Army.

Today they are the Tea Party movement.

They are organized and educated and much better off financially. (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/15/us/politics/15poll.html) The leadership of the Republican Party is actively courting these groups. We see this from comments like Gingrich’s, Gov. Rick Perry (R-Tex.) who advocates secession; through Palin with her reload and gangster government comments; and of course Fox News.

In the 1990’s the Republicans were firmly planted in the middle of the American political process. Since then, the radical right has completed their takeover of the Republican Party. Now, the Republicans are moving outside this process and are increasingly advocating change by attacking the government itself. The result is elected Republican officials spouting doctrines that are tantamount to treason.

There are no center or middle wings of the Republican party to counterbalance their positions. The Republicans did nothing to tone down the near riots at last year’s town hall meetings. Instead they tried to exploit them for political gain. The Republicans didn’t loudly condemn the actions of Joe Stack when he flew his plane into an IRS building, killing one worker and injuring a score of others. This silence speaks volumes as a background to reports of death threats against members of congress who voted for Health Care reform.

McDonnell and his followers are giving aid and comfort to doctrines that were discredited and discarded with a tremendous cost of life. The Republican leadership may think they can control these philosophies but they can’t. History is full of examples of conservative establishment political figures, who failed to contain radical elements they thought they could control.

The Republicans need to learn from this history and be cautious. Instead, they are whipping up the Tea Party movement into exactly the kind of populist, anti-government mob the framers of the constitution were afraid of.

Seven Months Away

November 2, 2010
- Election Day for the Mid-Term Congressional Election

The mid-term congressional election will be held in a little over seven months. The pundits and the experts are already saying Democrats will lose big. Some are even saying that the Democrats will lose their majority. Yes, historically the party in power looses seats in both the House and the Senate, but it is unreasonable to believe this early that the Democrats are headed to a repeat of 1994.

In 1994 the Democrats were caught in several scandals that seemed rooted in a tone-deaf assumption of privilege. The Clinton White House was in chaos and neither the President nor Congress seemed in control. Congressional Republicans were running without the baggage of a legislative record and were able to present themselves as a credible alternative to the Democrats.

Things are different now.

The Republicans have a recent track record of legislative accomplishments to live down. Whether it is the disastrous tax cuts that squandered the surplus, or deregulation that lead to the economic meltdown, the Republicans have a lot to answer for.

If they can muster the courage, Democrats can easily portray Republicans as the “Party of No” and remind the voters how Republicans have stood in the way of jobless benefits, health care and economic stimulus while offering no alternatives.

In 1994 the Republicans also ran on ethics. They pledged to clean Washington up. Now the Republicans have John Ensign (R-Nev) and strip clubs. Despite the flurry of subpoenas that have fallen on the friends whom he deceived to arrange hush money jobs for his mistress, her husband and son, Ensign seems to determined to hold on to the bitter end. As a result his case should be coming to a head right about election time.

A deeper problem for the Republicans is their low “Voter Identification” numbers. In the summary of party ID poll tracked on Pollster.com, (http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/party-id.php) the Republicans are tracking steady with a voter ID of about 26%. 33% of voters identify themselves as Democrats, and 36% identify themselves as Independents.

To win Republicans will have to win those Independents over.

That doesn’t seem to be happening. As the Pollster.com chart shows, the difference between the percentage of voters who identify themselves as Independents those who identify themselves as Republicans has held pretty steady since September of 2009.

For all the Republican bluster about representing “The-Will-Of-The-American-People,” the American People seem to have other ideas. After a year of tea party rallies and dominating the message, voters don’t agree with the direction of the Republican Party - this includes Republican voters.

In a poll released on 04/13/10, by Public Policy Polling, (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/republicans-in-disarray.html) only 28% of voters approved of the direction of the Republican Party. It is surprising only 54% of Republicans approve of the direction of their Party.

Michael Steele only adds to the Republicans image problems. It is hard to claim any credibility when you have staffers taking donors to bondage clubs, and using donor dollars to pay the bill. In the same Public Policy Poll, only 10% of Americans have a favorable view of Steele. Within the party the numbers are not much better, only 15% of Republicans have a favorable view of him.

It is hard to see how the Republicans can drag these sorts of approval numbers around behind them for a long period of time and not be hurt.

In the meantime Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), is also doing her best to present a smaller target to the Republicans. The vote count on Health Care Reform indicates that. Both times the House voted on Health Care Reform, the bill passed with a bare majority. Many analyst were looking at the vote counts and describing how weak support in the House was for reform.

The Republicans have fallen for that story.

Electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Maps/Mar23-s.html) has an interesting chart that shows that all but four of the Democrats who voted no came for strongly Republican leaning districts, and one of those four is running for Governor of Alabama. Pelosi wisely did not sacrifice these members to run up the count. She (like Karl Rove) understand to win in politics sometimes all you need is “50%+1.” These Democrats can run against Health Care all they want. For now they are not as large a target.

What will happen in November?

It is simply too early to tell. But the Democrats are in a better position than most people give them credit for. A CNN Public Opinion poll released on 04/13/10 (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/04/13/rel7d.pdf) shows Democrats taking the lead back from Republicans in the generic ballot poll. 50% of voters surveyed said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate and only 45% said they would vote for a Republican. This is a change from the March survey where only 45% chose the Democrat and 49% chose the Republican. This is the first time since November of 2009 that Democrats have lead in this monthly survey.

In 1994 the face of the Republican Party was Newt Gingrich. Gingrich was a likeable, intelligent spokesperson for the party who presented ideas that gave Americans a vision of what the Republicans would do in power. Sixteen years later, the face of the Republicans is Sarah Palin, who has no ideas for the future, just bumper sticker slogans about becoming the party of “Hell No.” The country has no idea what the Republicans stand for.

As the Democrats learned painfully in 1984, 1994 and 2004, you can’t win running on a platform of “I am not the other guy.”

Twenty-Two Pens

Kill the Bill!
- Popular Republican slogan from the past

Twenty-Two
- The Number of pens Barack Obama used to sign health care reform legislation into law.

On March 23, 2010, President Obama signed into law the most sweeping social legislation since the 1965 Civil Rights Act. On January 20, 2010, the day after Scott Brown won the Massachusetts special election, this victory did not look possible.

The Republicans are doing what they do best – fight progress. They have decided to go to court to try and overturn health care reform. This means that in many states, Republicans will use tax dollars to stop insurance coverage for newly insured Americans, while at the same time cutting the safety net these uninsured would have to use instead.

All this on the slim chance that the courts will rule, that despite the Constitution’s explicate statement that the government has the right to regulate interstate commerce (which insurance surely is) and government’s broad tax powers, a judge will overturn health care reform, and that judgment would be sustained through multiple appeals.

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Knt) is floating a new slogan for the Republican electorate. McConnell is pitching “Repeal and Replace” as the new strategy. We will see how that works out for them. They will spend the rest of the year criss-crossing the country, campaigning to revoke insurance for 35 million Americans. If they succeed they will have to create a bill, which even if passed, wouldn’t have the votes to override an Obama veto.

Republicans are beginning to openly question this approach. As Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said when asked about the possibility of Republicans successfully repealing and replacing the new health care law simply said “The fact is, that’s not going to happen, OK?”

During the final debate Republicans could only talk in abstracts, about the 10th Amendment to the Constitution, the budget deficit and socialism. If your child is ill and uninsured, States Rights and socialized medicine becomes less of an issue, than not being driven into bankruptcy regardless of whether or not your child survives.

On the other hand the Democrats used the opportunity to describe the benefits of reform over and over again. The lesson the Democrats should take from this victory is that the more they talk about what their proposals mean for the average person, the more likely they are to succeed.

This is also the first time since 1972 the “liberal” Democratic party has shown the courage to stand up and fight for what they believe. Since the McGovern debacle Democrats have wrung their hands and headed for the hills whenever faced with a determined opposition who was willing to use the “liberal smear” against them. Whether it was the perceived spinelessness of Jimmy Carter, the triangulation strategy of Bill Clinton, or the string of Presidential candidates from Dukakis to Gore to Kerry who seemed more interested in pander than principle, the Democrats have tried to hide their ideology whenever confronted with the “L-word.” When Democrats have won, it was more because the Republicans overplayed their hand, and less through ideological coherence, principle and party discipline.

The success of health care reform appears to represent a shift for the party. In the beginning of the process it looked like a typical Democratic effort of compromise and appeasement. Many of the “flaws” to the Senate version that were fixed through the reconciliation bill, were the result of the Obama administration’s initial commitment to bi-partisanship. By caving to the demands of the likes of Lieberman, Grassley and Landrieu, the Democrats once again looked like they stood on no principle beyond political victory and no vision beyond the next election.

It wasn’t until after the Scott Brown election when the President stood up to the Republicans at their Congressional retreat in Baltimore that the Democrats began to make a stand. For the first time years the country witnessed a Democratic President willing to stand up to and directly challenge his Republican opponents on their facts and their politics.

Obama’s willingness to take the fight directly to the Republicans not only gave fearful Democrats a template to answer their Republican opponents, but it also showed them the President would fight back to the end. This new willingness to pass reform without the Republicans, made it easier for Pelosi and Reid to hold the “yes” votes in line. They finally knew that they could take a stand and not be undercut by any effort to round up a stray Republican vote.

Only then did the tables begin turn in favor of health care reform.

In politics, you win more often when you stand and fight for something, than when you cave and compromise. After successfully holding their ground on a big issue maybe Democrats will hold on to the courage of their convictions, and move on to solve other major problems in America. They have proven that they can - even as the Republicans attack them and yell “No” from the sidelines.