An Alaskan Warning?

There's not much doubt things are getting worse for Democrats -- and they were already pretty bad. Somehow the party base needs to get reinvigorated over the next two months or there's going to be a very, very steep price to pay.

- Tom Jensen Public Policy Polling

Lisa Murkowski (R-ALK) was in trouble. Throughout the primary in Alaska it was a given that Murkowski would beat Tea Party Express candidate Joe Miller for the Republican nomination for Senate. With only a deficit of 1,688 votes and close to 7,600 absentee ballots which can be counted as late as two weeks after the primary, Lisa Murkowski needed to get over 56% of the outstanding absentee votes to have done so. But by Tuesday morning it was obvious she wasn’t going to pull ahead of Joe Miller.

On 8/31/10 Murkowski conceded defeat. She had not ruled out a third party or write-in run for the seat. But the Libertarian Party said they would not put her on their ticket. She could still run as a write-in. But for now she says she will go back to Washington, finish her term and come home.

In a post released on 08/289/10 Public Policy Polling (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/alaska-senate-race.html) the Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, is in a strong position. He is running even with the Republicans with the support of 42% of Independent voters. He has a unified Democratic party behind him with the support of 81% of his party’s voters. But with an 18% deficit in party Registration any Democrat has an uphill battle in Alaska.

McAdams may benefit from the fact that Joe Miller, like Sharon Angle has some very extreme positions. These positions may send independent voters as well as disappointed Murkowski voters his way. But currently the Republicans are favored to retain the seat.

Looking back to the one poll taken in the primary, Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com pointed out that Miller had surprising hidden strength in voters. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/26/a-closer-look-at-alaska/) A large plurality of voters who knew both Murkowski and Miller supported Miller. In July when the poll was taken 65% of voters didn’t even know who Miller was. With Miller’s name recognition being so low, this was a warning to Murkowski that as voters got to know Miller they would abandon her and vote for him.

Is there a similar warning to the Republicans nationwide?

For most of this cycle In the Congressional generic ballot question tracked by Gallop, the Republicans have held a lead of anywhere between 3-7 points. When the question gallop asks changes from a Generic ballot question to “Do you think your Rep should be reelected?” a majority of respondents say yes. With Democrats in a solid majority this should translate into some seat stability.

The other interesting number shows in a CNN poll. The more Republican voters cite animosity for Obama rather than a support for the Republican party platform as their reasons for voting for Republicans.

How will this play out?

If Obama begins to engage the 2008 voters (likely) and if he increases his popularity (possible), voters whose allegience to the Republican cause is more through anti Obamaism may drift away, just as Murkowski supporters went to Miller.

This is possible. One thing polls have shown consistently is that Republican congressional leadership ranks last in support behind both Obama and the Democratic leader. Republican Congressional leadership does not even have a majority support among likely Republican voters, (for example : http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_813.pdf).

A chart published by Gallup also shows that looking across the entire cycle Republicans had a lead outside of the margin error only once - throughout the month of August. The August 31 poll that puts the Republicans ahead at 10% while not good news for the Democrats, may not be the final word. The lead in this poll has changed several times since May. Which indicates soft support for both Parties. There was nothing in the news this week that would drive a seven point spike in the poll for the Republicans. So this lead could be the start of a trend, or just as likely statistical noise.

Right now the two main groups focussed on the election are pundits and Tea Party members. At this point only the hard core and the activist know an election is underway. The average Democratic voter simply isn’t engaged yet. The closer a race gets to election day the tighter it becomes. This one should be no different.

The Democratic party also has a significant edge in cash to use to get out the vote and engage their voters. They have the financial resources to buy $48 Million of advertisements to run two weeks before the election. This, with a stronger get out the vote infrastructure could make the difference in close races.

The nuts and bolts of getting voters to the polls can carry a weaker candidate past a stronger candidate with a poor get out the vote operation. That is what made the difference for Blanche Lincoln in her primary win.

So don’t count the Obama machine out. On 8/25/10 President Obama sent an email message to members of Organizing For America, the PAC he formed after the 2008 campaign, based on his list of volunteers and contributors. In the email Obama asked PAC members to support Jerry Brown’s (D-CA) campaign for Governor of California.

So many people responded that the Brown website crashed.

The enthusiasm for Democrats is there, it is simply waiting to be tapped. It is not too late for Democrats to tap in. Voters may simply waiting to be asked.

And that could make the difference.