Riding the Wave

"There's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control -- there is no doubt about that."

-- White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, in an interview on Meet the Press.

 

"Here is what will happen in November, Democrats will keep control of the House. Period."

- Fundraising email from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set to drop on 07/25/10

If the Republicans are going to sweep into office why don’t the polls show it?

The Gallup Generic Congressional ballot poll taken between 7/5-11 show the Democrats with a one point lead 47% and 46%.  In Pennsylvania a new Quinnipiac poll shows the Democrat, Joe Sestak has erased Pat Toomey’s (R) eight point lead.  The race is now tied 43% each.

The latest Field Poll, has California Senator Barbara Boxer ahead of Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by 3 points. Rasmussen has Boxer up by 7 points. If there were going to be a wave Boxer would be trailing by a significant amount.

There are several reasons why 2010 might not be a repeat of 1994.

When the Democrats won control of the House in 2006, they did so by winning 30 seats. They did this at the hight of violence of the Iraqi occupation, and a year after Katrina. To win control the Republicans will have to win 40 seats.  This seems a tall order.

In 1994 the Republicans were running on new ideas with new faces against a scandal ridden, lethargic, out of touch Democratic caucus.  This year Republicans are not running any bright new faces. Their have no overarching theme like they did with the Contract with America. 

In a weekly tracking poll taken by Gallup of registered voters nationwide, for the week of 7/5 -11, 47% of respondents, said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 46% said they were more likely to vote for the Republican. Only once since the beginning of April have Republicans held a lead in this poll outside the margin of error.  (http://www.pollingreport.com/2010.htm). 

If you compare these numbers to the numbers in the PA-12 race in May you see the problems the Republicans are up against.   

At the time of the special election to fill John Murtha’s (D-PA) seat, President Obama’s popularity rating was in the mid 30’s.  But, approval of Congressional Republicans was 22%. (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/reflecting-on-pa-12.html). The Democrats retained a seat that was thought to be a bell-weather for the future election.

Looking at the polls gathered in PollingReport.com (http://www.pollingreport.com/congress.htm) you see similar numbers.  Only 35% of respondents approved of the Democratic Congressional leadership.  But over the same time, only 31% of respondents approved of the Republican Congressional leadership. Democrats have consistently had a higher approval rating in this category.  So nationally the Democrat’s numbers are better than they were in PA-12. 

These are not the numbers of a wave and they are remarkably consistent with other polls taken at the same time. But, there are two reasons for the wave story, and Democrats can’t ignore them.

First Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats.  Currently Republicans appear  more willing to go the polls than the Democrats. In a Gallup survey taken in June 21, 2010, 59% of Republicans were more enthusiastic about voting in the 2010 election than they had been in 2006. This is compared to 44% for Democrats. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/140819/republicans-midterm-voting-enthusiasm-tops-prior-years.aspx).

Second, Independents are breaking for the Republicans. 

An indication of how Independents feel about the Democrats shows in Obama’s job approval rating. In a poll published on July 7 by Gallup, Obama’s approval rating by Independents is down to 38% from 56% this time last year. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/141131/obama-job-approval-rating-down-among-independents.aspx). This is a significant loss of support of a core group.

White Press Secretary Robert Gibbs  seemed to be referring to those numbers when he said on Meet the Press last Sunday (07/11/10) that it is possible the Democrats will loose the House.

But why say it?

By sounding the alarm bell he is trying to get the coalition of voters Obama put together 2008 engaged again. Democrats may believe it is easier to fire up the base that supported Obama in 2008 by reminding them what is at stake than, converting Independent voters that have moved to the Republicans. 

Gibbs is also trapping the Republicans.  

By keeping the expectation high for a Republicans takeover, Obama and the Democrats will look stronger if they retain the House.  The Republicans painted themselves in the corner when Minority Leader John Boehner said they would win 100 seats.  If they don’t win the House and the Senate they will look beatable.  

This will strengthen the Democrats with their legislative agenda. It will also strengthen Obama for 2012 as well as the rest of the Democratic ticket. If the Democrats do lose the House it will only be seen as the Republicans meeting expectations.

If historical trends hold, and looks like they will, Democrats will lose about 25 seats in the House and anywhere between 4 and 6 in the Senate.  Democrats will retain control of both houses.

Period.