Trying to Catch a Wave

“If you can't win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?" Former Republican Representative Tom Davis - Tuesday's night’s Caucus Blog of the New York Times (http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/blogging-the-primaries/?scp=2&sq=tom%20davis&st=cse).

Last Tuesday Mark Crist (D) beat Tim Burns (R) in the special election for the Pennsylvania 12th Congressional District by 8 points.  This win in the only congressional district in the country to vote for both John Kerry and John McCain should give the Democrats heart and the Republicans angina.

The last poll before the election was a Public Policy Poll on May 17, that showed Tim Burns (R) with a one point lead over Crist, (http://www.politico.com/2010/).  The last three polls before the election gave Burns any where between a one to six point lead.  

Burns ran his campaign against Pelosi and Obama, and Crist ran his campaign against Burns and the Republicans. Burns ran a campaign on national issues, and never addressed the concerns of the district's voters. Crist kept the focus of his campaign on the amount of Federal dollars he could bring to the district, and hammered Burns for wanting to cut Social Security and ship jobs out of the country.  Burns’ positions did not play well in an aging, rust belt district.

  

Furthermore, as low as Obama and Pelosi’s popularity ratings are in PA-12, the Democrats were still seen as a more attractive alternative than the Republicans.  A key finding in a Public Policy Polling Survey in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district stated that: only 28% of voters thought Republicans did a good job running the country under President Bush while 63% think they did not. That -35 spread is 15 points worse than the -20 spread for President Obama's approval in the district.  (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/reflecting-on-pa-12.html)

A lesson for the Republicans is that people who loose their homes and their jobs may be less concerned about whether Obama is a “socialist” and more angry at the party that they think caused their mess in the first place.

In the Senate race, despite Obama’s support, Arlen Specter’s (D-PA) loss to former Admiral and two term Congressman Joe Sestak (D) did not hurt the Democrats.  Specter was and is a Republican no matter what his current party affiliation.  He supported both the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq and all of George W. Bush’s tax cuts and Supreme Court nominations.  

When you switch parties it is a good idea not to be recorded saying you are doing it simply to get reelected.  This was Specter’s second party switch; he switched to the Republicans party soon after winning his first election in 1965.  This history helped people view his latest switch as more one of convenience than of ideology.  

Despite a pledge of support, Obama did not put much push behind Specter’s candidacy. The President seemed to calculate that if Specter, lost it would be to a Democrat the administration could work with, and who could more easily keep the Pennsylvania Senate seat in the Democrat’s hands.  A Rasmussen poll from May 20, 2010, shows this to be the case, with Sestak leading the Republican, Pat Toomey 46%-42%.  (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate) 

Where it does hurt Obama is that a Senator or Member of Congress may think twice when promised the President’s support in a difficult re-election campaign in return for a tough vote.  They have only to look at Arlen Specter in retirement to be reminded how tepid that support can be.  

The Republicans, meanwhile are using the Specter/Sestak race as a cover for their own failure in the PA-12 race.  They are blaming their loss on the heavy turnout of Democrats generated by the Senate primary.  In reality their loss underscores their weakness in trying to regain a majority in the House of Representatives.  In 1994 the Republicans were winning all the special elections held before that mid term - in which they took control of the House.  Likewise in 2006 the Democrats were winning special elections held before that mid-term when they wrested control back from the Republicans.

The Republicans have won only one special congressional election this year and that was in Hawaii where the Democrats ran two candidates and split the vote.  Hardly a sign of a seismic shift away from the Democrats.

The Democrats are maintaining their new lead in the generic congressional ballot.  Obama’s approval/disapproval ratings are tied - again not an indication of a strong move to the Republicans.  Finally weaker Democratic candidates like Barbara Boxer are beginning to poll ahead of their Republican challengers.  

The one thing that is clear from Tuesday is the Republicans still have not made a case for being put back in charge.  If the trend continues the Democrats will escape with the average number of losses in a mid-year election and the Republicans will again spend election night wondering what went wrong.