Gaining Ground with Jim DeMint

"I don't know that I'm always going to be right, but I do know this: I'm not going to sit on the sidelines again. When we tell people we're the conservative party ... I want to make sure we have people sitting in those seats who really mean it."

 - Sen Jim DeMint (R-SC) in an AP Interview May 2010

If I were Mitch McConnell (R-KY) I would want to know where Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is every moment of every day.    DeMint’s PAC, The Senate Conservatives Action Fund (http://www.senateconservatives.com/v1/) has been funneling endorsements and financial support to insurgent Republican candidates all across the country. Many of DeMint’s candidates have defeated, forced out or are ahead of “establishment” candidates who were supported or recruited by McConnell. 

Charlie Crist was forced out of the Florida Governor’s race by Marco Rubio (with support from DeMint’s PAC). Crist is now running as an Independent.  Last week DeMint’s  withheld endorsements for candidates for the Utah Republican Senate nomination until after the incumbent Bob Bennett (R-UT) was forced out of the race.  In a pre-recorded message DeMint endorsed challenger and Tea Party candidate Mike Lee - a slap from a freshman Senator to a senior incumbent.  

In Kentucky, DeMint’s group is supporting Rand Paul over Mitch McConnell’s candidate Trey Grayson.  The polls show Paul comfortably ahead for the nomination.   McConnell himself has become an issue in Kentucky, with Rand Paul telling Kentucky voters that they don’t need a rubber stamp for McConnell as their second Republican Senator. 

The only thing that could help Trey Grayson at this point is a law in Kentucky that declares anyone not registered to vote as of December 2009, ineligible to vote in the primary. This could shut out a lot of enthusiastic, newly registered Tea Party voters. 

No matter what happens McConnell’s hold on his leadership post looks vulnerable, and DeMint looks like the guy who can take it away from him.  McConnell has shown that he can’t protect incumbents or pick candidates.  The insurgent wing of the Republican Party sees him as part of the Washington establishment.  

DeMint on the other hand as a leader of the radicals who are taking over is seen as a power and a kingmaker.

With the money that De Mint’s PAC has spread around, he will have some strong allies in a leadership race.  A look at the ratings of “true conservative Senators” from his Senate Conservatives Action Fund lists 9 other Senators (he makes the 10th - Bunning (R-KY) is currently on the list but could be replaced with Paul) who have ratings of over 90%. (McConnell scores in the 70’s). Presumably these are senators who agree with DeMint enough to support him in a Leadership fight.  That gives him a base of 40% of the caucus.  The addition of one or two Senate candidates whom his PAC supported, combined with the appearance of strength could translate into enough votes to unseat McConnell.

But what is DeMint’s long term plan? He might decide to bypass a run for a Senate Leadership post altogether to pursue bigger goals.

DeMint is giving money to candidates who really don’t have a chance of winning.  For example, he has given money and support to Chuck Devore’s race for the Republican Senate nomination in California, even though it is almost certain Devore will loose to former Rep. Tom Campbell, who has a much better chance of beating Barbara Boxer (D-CA).  

He could be doing this to build support in the Tea Party movement and Republican right wing for a run for President.

In 2012, DeMint can present himself to the Tea Party base as an alternative to Sarah Palin, and as a true believer with the power to get things done.  Palin angered the Tea Party group by endorsing Carly Fiorina in the California  Republican Senate race.  The Tea Party purists were supporting DeVore. They are group who don’t forgive easy.

DeMint will step in with the money and the power, as well as the experience that Palin doesn’t have. He won’t have Palin’s baggage. While Palin is running around being a media personality, DeMint is building the practical grassroots support of the Tea Party crowd.  It is support that any Republican will need to win the Presidential nomination in 2012.

  

McConnell is not the only one who should be looking over his shoulder wondering how fast DeMint is gaining on him. Anyone wanting to run for President in 2012 should be wondering where DeMint is as well.