Napping in Massachusetts

“It was a classic case of everybody getting caught napping.”
- David Axelrod

David Axelrod was wrong. The Democrats weren’t napping; they were in deep sleep in Massachusetts.

Even as the polls tightened weeks before the election, everyone seemed to believe that a Republican in “the Kennedy” was such a violation of the laws of physics that Scott Brown would fail. The voters of course are an angry and independent lot. They obey a, stronger, higher law of physics – the one that says if you don’t make things better we will try someone else.

Martha Coakley was a strong candidate on paper. She had good statewide name recognition and a high approval rating. She had also run several successful statewide races.

But she never really seemed to put much effort in the Senate race. Coakley spent a lot of time talking to party bosses and running a campaign that looked a lot like the “inevitability” campaign that Hillary Clinton ran - line up endorsements from the big wigs and use those endorsements to intimidate everyone else into falling in line.

When the polls tightened, Coakley did not change the style of her campaign. She kept running as if she were on a victory lap. Had Coakley responded when the polls first began to tighten three weeks ago she would a Senator elect. The lesson is every election counts, every time. It seems Obama may be learning this lesson. He is gathering the core of his 2008 team to work the mid-terms to prevent any more damage.

To succeed this group is going to have to look beyond popular myths.
One myth is “Massachusetts is the “bluest” of states.” Everyone got so caught up in the myth of the Democratic registration that they missed the outsider in the pick-up truck traveling around the state listening to what voters had to say.

The truth is Massachusetts is more of a purple state. Mitt Romney was Governor there for eight years. Democrats are the second largest voter registration in the state. The largest voter registration by far is Independents. Democrats got so taken in by the “bluest state” myth that they forgot to win you have persuade the independent voter.

A new myth that is being created is that Scott Brown’s win gives great momentum to the Republicans because America is ready for their message. But, Republicans are less popular than ever. Less than 20% of voters are happy with the direction of the Republican Party. Less than 30% of Republicans are happy with their party. If Republicans see this as a mandate to return the policies of Bush they will be in big trouble in 2010.


This election was less about Obama and more about how angry voters are with the government. Certainly to a voter who is one of the 10% unemployed, or over 20 million without health insurance, or one of the 33% of American homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth, not much has changed since the summer of 2008. Instead of fixing these issues, people perceive the Government has spent a year in a futile partisan war over health care with no results.

Obama was right when he said the same forces that swept him into office were the same ones that swept Scott Brown into office. The electorate is angry and volatile. They will take it out on whoever is seen as the party in power. Voters could turn on the Republicans just as fast as it appears to have turned on the Democrats.

The lesson for everyone in 2010 is the voters will only support candidates who look like they will get something done. It doesn’t matter if that candidate is a Democrat or Republican. Voters simply want the country fixed and their problems solved.

Massachusetts showed that we are tired of waiting.