The New Dan Quayle

“Sarah Palin is the next Ronald Reagan”
- Richard A. Viguerie - September 9, 2008 – Pioneer of political direct mail and a pillar of the modern conservative movement

This time last year, conservatives everywhere were busy anointing Sarah Palin the second coming of “The Gipper” and savior of the conservative movement. Right after the election Phyllis Schlafly gushed “Sarah Palin is certainly a rising star – she was a breath of fresh air, and [brings] a lot of excitement to the conservative movement. I think she is a genuine conservative.”

But, Reagan positioned himself as an optimist. He hid his hard-line conservative past in gauzy proclamations of better days ahead for everyone. Whether it was his “There you go again” line off of Jimmy Carter in 1980 or the “Morning in America” strategy in 1984, Reagan tried to wrap everyone together in an avuncular embrace.

A better analogy would be Palin is more like Richard Nixon. Unlike Reagan, Nixon ran by appealing to people’s fears. The “Silent Majority” in 1968 was not just a veiled appeal based on race. It was also an appeal to voters who felt their world had been turned upside-down by elites who laughed at them and made no attempt to understand them.

You only have to take a look at the itinerary of Sarah Palin’s book tour to confirm these are the people Palin is speaking to. Her schedule includes Fort Wayne, Indiana; Washington, Pennsylvania; and Birmingham, Alabama. The largest city in her tour is Dallas, Texas – hardly a place where she will run into an unfriendly crowd.

She also has the same dark paranoia that Nixon has. To listen to her blame all of McCain’s advisors for her failures is not much different than Nixon’s obsession with Kennedy aides that he was sure were conspiring to bring him down. Nixon’s view of Daniel Schorr is not much different than Palin’s view of Katie Couric. Each was sure they were set up by unsympathetic reporters determined to do them in.

The difference between Nixon and Palin, however, is that Nixon was able to wrap his paranoia up and hide it from general view. He was able to impress people with tour-de-force monologues on the state of world affairs that even his enemies conceded were insightful and brilliant.

Where Nixon was able to draw deeply on his knowledge of international affairs, Palin can only talk in bumper sticker slogans while pointing out Russia and Alaska are next door to each other. With little to discuss Palin can only talk about herself.

Nixon started working on his comeback as early as 1966. He carefully stage-managed every detail of his public life. He knew one mistake would brand him a loser and would destroy his credibility. Palin is very careless about her public image, whether it is backing out of an event at the Reagan Library or trying to charge for an appearance at an Iowa political meeting, Palin continues to reinforce the image that she is incompetent and not ready to handle the national spotlight, let alone the nation’s interests.

In a CNN Poll taken on October 28, 2009 over 70% surveyed in the Oct0ber 28, 2009 CNN poll said she was not qualified to be President. (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/10/28/cnn-poll-7-in-10-say-palin-not-qualified-to-be-president/). Even worse for her, only 58% of Republicans and 28% of Independent voters feel she is qualified to be President.

In this way she is more like Dan Quayle than she is any other modern American politician. At this point after his introductory speech at the Republican Convention of 1988 Dan Quayle was perceived as more qualified. (http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2009/10/sarah-palin-polls-like-dan-quayle.html). 40% of voters felt Quayle was qualified to be President. This is a terrible number for a sitting Vice President. But when you look at Sarah Palin’s numbers on the same question (28%) they are catastrophic.

When you consider the high disapproval rating she has with Democrats it is difficult to see how she can be a viable candidate for the Presidency. Quayle, despite all his hard work was never able to overcome the perception that he was a lightweight. He withdrew from the 1996 Presidential race soon after he entered. Palin is headed to the same fate.

As Vice Admiral James Stockdale discovered, national reputations, once set, are hard to change. Few people remember his Congressional Medal of Honor. But 16 years later what most people remember about him, is his question in the 1992 Vice Presidential debate “Who am I? Why am I here?”

These are two questions Sarah Palin has not even begun to coherently answer.