Justice Souter and the Republican Brand

“Do you really believe that we lost 18-to-34-year-olds by 19 percent, or we lost Hispanic voters, because we are not conservative enough? No. This is a ridiculous line of thought. The truth is we lost young people because our Republican brand is tainted."
-- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) April 29, 2009 in the New York Times.

These trends, the increase of Hispanics both as part of the population and their increasing tendency to register as Democrats and the commitment of young people to the Democratic Party philosophy have been in place for a long time. The Republicans studiously ignored these trends. The Democrats built on them.

McCain thought Palin would peel off women voters from Obama. That didn’t happen. Women saw Palin’s selection as the raw pandering that it was. Not having learned, the Republican picked Michael Steele to lead them, even though he was manifestly unqualified for the job.

After a turbulent few months some Republican power brokers are giving an open assessment of Steele. Former Iowa Republican Congressman Jim Nussle was honest when asked whether Steele could lead the party. In the April 29, edition of the Des Moines Register, Nussel said “I don't think we've found that [a leader] yet in Michael or anybody else yet for the party, so we're going to have to struggle through that for a while."

Maybe, just maybe they are beginning to understand their predicament.

The Republicans have launched another effort to rebrand themselves. The “National Council for a New America” launched its efforts with a letter to Republican supporters that did not mention such hot button issues as abortion and gay marriage. The group is described by Republican Whip Eric Cantor as a forum for “all inclusive debate and wide-open policy discussion.” Sen. McCain describes it as “Not a contract with America but a conversation with America.”

As Politico.Com pointed out, (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21957.html), the Council’s advisory board members are part of the party’s new establishment, and include Gov. Jindal, Gov. Barbour and Mitt Romney. The group’s goal is to attract like-minded Democrats to the Republican Party with fresh and new ideas. Their first event is a listening tour that starts in a pizza parlor.

But just as the Republican’s efforts to begin to rebrand themselves and change how voters view them, Supreme Court Justice David Souter announces his retirement. Nothing kicks red meat Conservatives (and Liberals) into high gear harder and faster than a Supreme Court vacancy.

Justice Souter has been described as a “Judge’s Judge” writing clear, meticulously researched opinions, with an eye on how his decisions will actually be implemented. But, for years Justice Souter has been the bête noir of the hard Republican right. Even though Bush 41 marketed him as conservative pro-lifer, he turned out to be a reasonable moderate. Conservative felt betrayed.

How the Republicans handle their opposition to Obama’s pick will do much to define voter’s view of the party. Some on the right have already started to read from their standard ideological cue cards. The Judicial Confirmation Network issued a statement that said in part: “The current Supreme Court is a liberal, judicial activist court. If Obama holds to his campaign promise to appoint a Justice who rules based on her own ‘deepest values’ and what's in her own ‘heart’ – instead of what is in the Constitution and laws — he will be the first American President who has made lawlessness an explicit standard for Supreme Court Justices.”

Such shrill negativity will simply reinforce the voter’s view of the Republicans as the party of “no” and mindless, reflexive partisanship. If however, Republicans support a qualified moderate choice, they will go a long way to changing people’s perceptions of them. The Democrats showed voters they valued competency over ideology when they voted for Justice Roberts and Justice Alito. While they conceded that they disagreed with their views no one questioned their abilities. It is hard to see the Republican making a similar concession for an equally competent centrist or liberal nominee.

The battle to replace Justice Souter gives the Republicans a high profile opportunity to change people’s views of the Party. If the opposition to President Obama’s nominee becomes shrill and partisan, it will take more than position papers and listening tours in pizza parlors to woo voters back. The negative opinion of young first time voter’s of the Republican Party – voters whose views on social issues are more tolerant than those of the Republican right - will harden. It will reinforce the perception other voters that the Republican Party is the party of an out of touch elite.

If that happens, the Republicans will lose these voters for a generation and will spend a long time out of power and wandering in the wilderness.