What Were They Thinking?

The vote was 244-188, with Republicans unanimous in opposition despite Obama's frequent pleas for bipartisan support.
- AP lede 1/28/2009 on the House vote on the Obama Stimulus package.


The Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the political foot, and demonstrate the political skills that have left them with statistical majority in only five states in the Union. The House Republicans knew that they were going to lose this vote. They knew that under House rules they could only wave at the bill as it sailed through on its way to the Senate, where they would have to rely on Republican Senators to change the package.

So, the only thing the House Republicans could do was to play to the public. So what did they do? Wise Republican leadership would have looked around for 10-15 Representatives who are about to retire or who come from safe seats and make them vote for the stimulus bill. That way the House Republicans could say to the public “I understand your struggle, we have concerns but we are willing to work with the President.” The House Republicans would buy points with the new administration which they could use later. Having some throw-away votes on the other side would also give the Republicans some credibility when they criticized the stimulus package.

But they ignored all of these possibilities and voted against the bill – unanimously. As a result the headlines have been negative and people think they voted “No” just because the bill came from a Democrat, and not because they were operating from some guiding principle. The public looks at the Republicans complaining about the amount of spending in this bill and remembers a friend, a reformed smoker who is constantly nagging everyone else to quit.
This type of short sighted behavior is why according to Gallup Poll’s State of the States report released 1/28/2009 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/114016/State-States-Political-Party-Affiliation.aspx) the Republicans have a statistically significant advantage in party registration in only five states – Utah, Idaho, Alaska, Nebraska and Wyoming. Together these states have 20 Electoral votes out of the 271 needed to win the Presidency.

Democrats also now have the greatest advantage in party identification (36% Dem v. 28% Rep.) since 1983. (Gallup Poll report released on 1/23/2009 http://www.gallup.com/poll/113947/Democrats-2008-Advantage-Party-Largest.aspx). What is hard for the Republicans in these numbers is that in 2004 the Democrats and Republicans were tied at 34% each for party identification. But by 2008 the Democrats have gained 3% points in Party ID and the Republicans have lost 5%. This shows people are not necessarily flocking to the Democrats as much as they are fleeing the Republicans.

As the Republican Party gets smaller the extreme wing will exert tighter control, driving more conservative Democrats and Independents away. The National Republican party will look increasingly like the California Republican Party, who have a nominally RINO Governor and the Secretary of State as their only two statewide office holders, and a small minority in the Assembly. The California Republicans are marginalized, hyper partisan, and unpopular. They continue to shrink in size, as voters’ view them as being intellectually bankrupt and ill equipped to solve the state’s problems.

The more the Republicans unite in opposition, without offering alternatives, the more they will be viewed as being opposition for opposition’s sake, and the easier it will be for the Democrats to paint them as roadblocks. By not casting a single vote for the stimulus package the Republicans missed a good opportunity to begin to broaden their reach and restore their credibility. Unfortunately for them they missed their chance, and will continue to wander in the desert.