Bush's Last Crisis

“Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
- Vice President Elect Joe Biden on Obama, speaking to supporters 10/20/2008

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was doing some legacy polishing of her own this month. In a December 19 interview on CBS Radio, she discussed the diplomatic progress between Israel and the Palestinians "I’m so gratified that we are leaving a much better situation on Israeli-Palestinian issues than we found," (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/19/opinion/diplomatic/main4677370.shtml?source=related_story). But, despite her positive assessment, Israel moved against Hamas in Gaza and, to-date, there are over 380 dead. At this writing, Israel is massing troops on the border of the Gaza strip. Things do not look like they will settle down any time soon.

Is this the “test” Biden warned about during the campaign?

If Israel was testing Obama they would have waited until after he took office. Instead they moved now because they knew that Bush could be counted on not to interrupt his vacation and Rice for an easy to ignore bromide. They were right. Bush did not interrupt his vacation. Instead he sent a spokesperson to read admonitions to Hamas and lend support to Israel’s actions. That was it. Rice limited herself to an easy to ignore statement of concern ("The cease-fire must be restored immediately and fully respected. The United States calls on all concerned to protect innocent lives and to address the urgent humanitarian needs of the people of Gaza." Washington Post 12/29/2008)

But Israel is not sure what Obama would do. They clearly see this as the last chance they have to move freely without interference from the US. Regardless of what he would do, the Israeli’s know that Obama’s would not be the “hands-off” response they enjoyed in the Bush years. A senior staffer in the Bush White House admitted as much. "They can't predict how the next administration will handle it. And this is not the way they want to start with the new administration." (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/27/AR2008122700962.html

Rachel Weiner of the Huffington Post calls this “Obama’s First Crisis” (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/29/gaza-crisis-first-test-fo_n_153906.html). Leading Democrats are demanding Obama take charge of the economy. In early December, Chris Dodd, Chair of the Senate Banking Committee said “The Obama team has to step up. In the minds of the people, this is the Obama administration. I don't think we can wait until January 20.”

This willingness to view events as Obama’s responsibility speaks to the hunger this country has for leadership. Since Katrina, Americans know they can’t count on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. They know, just as foreign leaders know, Bush is spent politically. He wasted his political standing on Social Security, Hurricane Katrina, and Harriet Myers.

But there is nothing Obama can do as President-elect. Like it or not, until January 20, 2009, George Bush is the only President the country has and he must call the shots. Obama understands this. Not only is this stance smart politics, it is the right thing to do. Legally Obama has no standing to execute any policy or action, regardless of whether it is dealing with the Middle East or the economy. The best he can do is be prepared to hit the ground running. Obama has designated his appointments faster than any of his predecessors. His team has already begun work on what they will do when they take office. There will be little time wasted in the transition. This will position Obama to immediately step in the vacuum left by Bush.

The world knows this. Over the past eight years, whenever a crisis arose they counted on Bush to do little or nothing. But they think that Obama will be different. They know the time of a disengaged US President is drawing to a close. Therefore, the current crisis can be seen not as a test for Obama, but as a statement on Bush’s lack of leadership.