Sarah Palin Kicks at the Door of History

“Today I announce that I will seek and I will win the presidency of the United States of America.”
- Dan Quayle announcing his candidacy for President of the United States in April of 1999. He withdrew after placing 8th in the Ames Iowa straw poll in August of 1999.

As Sarah Palin considers kicking in doors the Almighty may have left cracked for her, she should hope that He oiled its hinges as well. The history of failed Vice Presidential candidates who went on to win the big prize is short.

The only failed Vice Presidential candidate since 1865 who went on to be elected President was Franklin Delano Roosevelt (VP Candidate in 1924 with John W. Davis who lost - big time – to Calvin Coolidge). In the same period of time only two Vice Presidents won the presidency without first ascending through the death of their President – Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush.

FDR, Nixon and Bush each broke through in extraordinary circumstances. After 1924, FDR went on to serve successfully as Governor of New York. Running a major state during the onset of the Great Depression proved his executive skills to the nation. Nixon’s monomania kept him in the game. PepsiCo put him on its payroll so he could travel and rebuild his image. Eight years after losing to JFK, he was able to take advantage of a split in the Democratic Party to narrowly win election. George H.W. Bush won running on the accomplishments of a very popular incumbent. He also had the good fortune to run against Michael Dukakis who, until John McCain ran in 2008, was the most incompetent Presidential candidate since Alf Landon.

These circumstances are not in place for Sarah Palin.

Why do Vice Presidential candidates and Vice Presidents have such a hard time rising to the top? There are several factors they have to overcome to win.

First, Presidential candidates do not pick someone who is strong enough to overshadow them. VP candidates are picked to shore up a weakness or bring in the support of a targeted constituency. In the late 19th and early 20th century this would be a political machine, and/or someone well known in a region distant to the main candidate. In modern times the VP is picked to appeal to a narrow constituency who view the Presidential nominee with suspicion, or to fill a perceived gap in their resumes. Thus Gore was picked by Clinton and Biden by Obama to provide an air of DC competence and experience that an outsider would need to succeed in Washington. George H.W. Bush chose Quayle and McCain chose Palin to improve their standings among conservatives who distrusted them. In no case were these candidates chosen because the Presidential candidate looked at them and said “they can be President.”

Second, a Vice Presidential candidate’s role is to protect the Presidential nominee by doing the ticket’s dirty work and paying the political price for it. This enables the Presidential nominee to glide above the fray. By the time the campaign is over the VP candidate’s reputation is damaged and his or her political capital is spent. If they lose they have little opportunity to regain that capital. Generally speaking they are out of office and have few ways to rebuild what they lost.

If they lose but have an office to go back to, like Bob Dole did after 1976, their previous campaign comes back to haunt them when they run again. In 1996, Dole tried so hard not to be the biting attack dog that he was when he ran with Gerald Ford, that he made himself uncomfortable and never looked natural.

If their ticket does win, they do have that opportunity to repair their image and rebuild political capital. But running as a sitting VP is a double edged sword. If the incumbent keeps them at a distance and out of the loop they won’t be seen as experienced enough. This was one of the problems Nixon had when he ran in 1960. Bush ’41 also had this problem, but was lucky in that the Dukakis campaign was as inept as Regan was popular.

If you are involved in the incumbent’s administration you have to run on his record. Walter Mondale and Al Gore had this problem. Both men had to lug around all the baggage their President loaded on their bandwagon. Neither could overcome unpopular aspects of the Carter and Clinton administration.

Palin and Quayle share a third factor. By the time their VP campaigns were over, they were (and are) seen as a punch line of a joke. Each had opportunities to overcome this perception, but both blew it through simple lack of skill and self-awareness. Whether it is Sarah Palin standing in front of a turkey rendering machine in action, or Dan Quayle ensuring a spelling bee contestant adds that pesky silent “e” at the end of” potato,” those moments will define them throughout their lives. Once Americans start laughing they never stop.

So Palin is kicking on a door that probably will remain closed. No matter how hard she kicks by flying around the country fundraising, campaigning, and giving speeches, history shows she is more likely to follow in the footsteps of Dan Quayle than in those of FDR.