"I happen to think the media is up to a bit of mischief here. I think the media wants to take Sarah Palin and make her, subliminally, the face of the Republican Party. They want to make her: this is what Republicans are, the face of the party, the leader of the party, because it amuses them to do that."
-- Former White House speechwriter Peggy Noonan, on MSNBC.
Ms. Noonan’s disdain for Gov Palin was evident from the moment her open-mike “we’re finished” comment hit airwaves. From George Will to Kathleen Parker, establishment Republicans lined up to express their contempt for the Governor. They sat on their hands while the McCain campaign did everything it could to throw her under the bus without leaving any fingerprints. It was clear they felt she was a gate crasher to their club, and they not only disliked her, but were angry at McCain for letting her through the door.
But, despite her gaffes, her fractured syntax, a shaky grasp of many of the issues, and the contempt of the Republican establishment, Gov. Palin survives.
In a poll commissioned by the Daily Kos performed by Research 2000, (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/19/163122/92/701/674605), Palin would easily defeat Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican primary for US Senate. In addition, the same poll shows Palin would defeat any named politician for that Senate seat. She does better running for Senate than she would running for re-election as Governor. Even so, she would handily win another term as Governor if she stood for re-election.
One thing no one disputes is her ability to read poll numbers. Palin is too ambitious to stay in Alaska. The Senate provides her a national platform closed to her if she stayed in the Governor’s mansion. In addition, being in the Senate would make her initial primary campaign stops easier. Because of distance and airline connections it takes 3 days of her time to speak at one dinner in Iowa. Compare that with Gov. Jindal who can get to and from an Iowa event in afternoon. If she were in the Senate it would be easier for her to stay in the lower 48 and pop in and out of the early primary and caucus states from DC.
It is not just the “left wing” media that is pushing Sarah Palin. In the December 23, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal, John O’Sullivan compares the Governor favorably to Margaret Thatcher. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122999917373529125.html). O’Sullivan makes the case that Palin speaks for the same constituency and values as the Iron Lady. Thatcher was widely ridiculed as a lightweight, until she took office and grew, like Reagan, into a benchmark of conservative political thought.
Sarah Palin sent her own message on what she thinks of the Republican elite, when she did not return two phone calls from former President George H.W.Bush. The press portrayed this omission as part of the same cluelessness that sees Russia from her backyard, while oblivious to a turkey being guillotined right behind her.
Maybe, just maybe, the Governor believes that former President Bush and the wing of the party he represents are not worth the effort to contact and cultivate. Palin and the group of Republicans who support her have clearly concluded that moderates like Bush ’41, are a part of the party they no longer need. They feel Republicans lost in 2006 and 2008 because they were not conservative enough. They believe that moderates weakened them, and voters will only return to an ideologically pure form of socially conservative Republicanism – one that does not include either former President Bush or any of the New England moderates whose passing they so loudly cheer.
No one can win the Presidency with only the support of one extreme wing of their party. The liberals couldn’t do it in 1988 with Dukakis. The Democrats regained power only with the broader centrist appeal of Bill Clinton. President Nixon learned this lesson early on. His advice to Republicans to run to the right in the primaries in and to the center in the November is now a truism. Play to your extreme base in the primary season and to the public in the general election.
When Gov. Palin does run for President, she will find she can mobilize enough voters to be a contender but not enough to win. To win the Presidency, she will have to start returning phone calls from all wings of the party. Unless establishment Republicans want to spend the next political generation slipping into irrelevance, they will have to admit that Gov Palin and the people she speaks to have a place at the political table.
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