Cashing a Reality Check

"From what we could see from all the polling and everything else, it remains a conservative country."

- Brit Hume on Fox news election night 2006 when the Democrats took back the House and Senate.

From Brit Hume on election night 2006 to Fred Barnes in 2008, whenever the Republicans lose, their shills take to the airwaves to convince themselves and others that the US is a center-right country. They tell us any win by progressives is a fluke, brought on by the “gotcha media” snookering a gullible public.

Are they right?

A quick look at the presidential elections from 1992 – 2008 shows this is actually a center-left country and has been for a long time. During this time a conservative Presidential candidate won once – in 2004. Clinton won in 1992 beating the moderate conservative Bush ’41 and the ever entertaining Ross Perot. In 1996 Clinton ran and beat Bob Dole who ran on a classic conservative platform.

Then there is the 2000 election. Gore and his center-left platform won more votes than Bush ’43. Together with Nader the center-left/liberal agenda won solid support from the voters. In 2004 Bush ’43 won re-election by running a campaign of fear against an almost incoherent Kerry campaign. Polls showed that if Kerry had run on domestic issues, he would have won. In 2008 Obama won with over 50% of the vote. So again the center-left/liberal agenda won.

Surveys show that American disagree with much of basic Republican orthodoxy. (The poll numbers quoted below are compiled in a report published by Media Matters : The Progressive Majority: Why a Conservative America is a Myth; found at http://mediamatters.org/progmaj/report.)

In a survey published National Election Studies (NES) in 2004, 59% of respondents said we need a bigger government to do bigger things. It is no surprise then that 42% of respondents said they wanted more programs even if it meant more spending. This is not exactly strong support for small government that Republicans advocate.

A survey by the LA Times in 2005 found that whereas most people felt taxes were too high it didn’t rate as a number one concern and it never had, (it still doesn’t). At the same time a Wall Street Journal poll showed the overwhelming majority felt spending was better than tax cuts at stimulating the economy.

Pew Research published data in 2007 that showed people who oppose making abortion difficult to obtain rose from 49% in 1985 to 56% in 2007. So from mid-Reagan to mid-Bush ’43 opposition to restrictions on abortion steadily increased. In a CNN poll taken in 2007, 62% of respondents opposed overturning Roe v Wade.

These are three key planks of the Republican platform. These are also planks with which the country strongly disagrees – and has done so over a long period of time. These examples are not outliers or exceptions. For example, in addition, Americans support increases in the minimum wage, and universal health insurance both of which Republicans have stridently opposed.

As Republicans try and work out why they lost in 2006 and 2008 and may lose again in 2010, they need to understand where the country actually is philosophically. Simply put the Republicans loose because they are out of step with the majority of Americans. Until they get back in stride with the average voter, Republicans will continue to go down in defeat.